The demise of the Stone Age was not because the stones on the earth were used up. Perhaps one day in the future, oil may still be there, but it is no longer the scenery. Although various authorities have unanimously predicted that fossil energy, represented by oil and natural gas, will continue to be used in the next 20 or 30 years, no one can deny the trend of replacing fossil energy in the future in the future, such as the rising of new energy in the future. ......
When traditional oil companies hit the tide of new energy, should they choose to go upstream or go down the river? It is now time to plan.
The impact of new energy on the oil industry
The slowdown in energy demand is difficult to hinder the rapid development of new energy. The main driving force for new energy development is still the demand for economic development and energy transformation. In recent years, with the acceleration of energy consumption structure adjustment and policy support, the global new energy industry has made considerable progress. In 2015, the growth rate of global new energy investment exceeded fossil fuels for the first time. The diversification trend of energy supply was not weakened by the fall of oil prices, but it continued to increase. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA): due to low oil prices, global energy investment in 2015 was 1.83 trillion US dollars, the lowest since 2010, down 8% from 2014; but renewable energy investment has increased by 1 %, reaching $0.313 trillion, accounting for 17% of total energy investment.
In addition, the technical cost of the new energy industry is also rapidly declining, and the return on investment has steadily increased. Among them, the cost of new energy power generation has been declining and has gradually approached or even fallen below fossil fuels. Zhu Min, from the 2016 National Information Center's Economic Forecasting Department, pointed out that in China, North America and South America, the price of the most competitive utility-scale solar projects reaches US$0.08 per kWh; the price of a single wind power project is US$0.05 per kWh. The price of electricity from fossil fuel power plants ranges from $0.045 to $0.14. The International Renewable Energy Organization (IRENA) research indicates that by 2025, the cost of solar photovoltaic power generation can be reduced by 59%, the cost of concentrated solar energy by 43%, the cost of onshore wind power by 26%, and the cost of offshore wind power by 35%. According to this forecast, after 10 years, the power generation cost of new energy will be generally lower than fossil energy.
The future energy structure will change significantly. According to BP World Energy Outlook (2016 edition), fossil energy is still the leading energy source for the world economy by 2035, accounting for about 60% of the estimated energy increase, and nearly 80% of the total energy supply in 2035. (below 86% in 2014); natural gas is the fastest growing fossil energy (1.8% per year), and its share in primary energy is increasing. Oil has grown steadily (average annual rate of 0.9%), and its downward trend has continued. In non-fossil energy sources, renewable energy is growing rapidly (6.6% per year), resulting in their share of primary energy, from the current 3% to 9% in 2035.
The development of new energy vehicles will impact the energy status of oil. Most oil companies have greatly underestimated the impact of new energy vehicles on the crude oil market. Independent energy consultants Salman Ghouri and Andreasde Vries said: According to the current trend, the automotive industry will continue to have an impact on oil demand, and in the long run, it may also bring a devastating blow to the oil industry. Yu Benshan of the China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute said: "In the next 5 to 10 years, the cost of renewable energy power storage will be greatly reduced; in the next 10 years, the battery technology of electric vehicles is expected to usher in a breakthrough, thus effectively promoting the transformation of the automotive industry. "The future graphene power battery may become one of the ideal materials to solve the bottleneck problem of the battery life of electric vehicles, thus promoting the vigorous development of new energy vehicles. This has led to an increase in the market share of new energy vehicles worldwide. According to the IEA, by 2030, electric vehicles will account for 30% of the world's total car sales.
The future of new energy should not be underestimated New energy PK oil and natural gas, no matter who has the upper hand in the future, there is no doubt that new energy has become a competitor that the oil industry can not be underestimated.
New energy will eventually replace traditional fossil energy and firmly believe in the public; but when it will be replaced, there are different opinions. The author makes the following predictions: In the next 10 years (2017~2027), oil and natural gas are stable, new energy is mainly used as supplementary energy and clean energy, and the proportion will rise steadily, but it will be difficult to become a short-term By 2035, new energy accounts for 10% to 15% of primary energy (higher than 9% predicted by BP), and the actual development depends mainly on people's increasing environmental awareness and technological progress. By then, new energy will be widely used. New energy vehicles will account for 20 to 25% of the market (lower than the 30% predicted by the International Energy Agency). In the face of the impact of new energy, the oil industry will feel a crisis; by 2065 ~ 2085, new energy will completely replace traditional fossil energy, pure new energy vehicles will completely replace gasoline and kerosene vehicles. At that time, oil will return to the basic properties of industrial raw materials, mainly used as industrial raw materials and materials.
Multinational oil companies make strategic adjustments
At present, multinational oil companies are grasping the direction of energy development, actively making strategic adjustments, and are striving to realize the transition from oil companies to comprehensive energy companies. In the transitional stage of energy structure, multinational oil companies believe that it is necessary to develop traditional oil and gas energy and improve current competitiveness and performance. It is also necessary to plan ahead and actively develop new energy sources in advance for future energy competition and sustainable development of enterprises.
In the past decade, the investment of new energy by multinational oil companies has been on the rise, fully reflecting the tendency of priority. The boom in new energy began in 2006, when the international oil price was in a downturn. After 2008, the international oil price broke through 100 US dollars / barrel, and the enthusiasm of multinational oil companies for new energy was slightly reduced. In 2010, the United States made breakthroughs in shale oil and gas. Multinational oil companies have withdrawn from new energy fields (wind power, photovoltaics, etc.) that are not good at them, and turned back to the main oil and gas industry. New energy sources only retain biofuels closely related to oil and gas. project.
ExxonMobil's investment in new energy is focused on biofuels and carbon capture storage. The company is a global leader in biofuel research and is actively working with new energy groups, Michigan State University, and the University of Wisconsin-Madison to develop biofuels. ExxonMobil announced in May 2016 that it will strengthen its partnership with fuel cell energy companies and accelerate the development of carbon capture technology, which is currently in a small-scale application stage.
Because Shell's layout on new energy sources is too fragmented, it does not form a concentrated advantage. Whether it is technology or cost, it is not competitive. As of the end of the first quarter of 2016, Shell's cumulative investment in the new energy sector reached $1.7 billion. New energy-related technology research and development now accounts for one-fifth of Shell's annual R&D budget, and new energy is expected to become an important growth business in the future. Raizen Biofuels, a joint venture between Shell and Cosan, has grown to become the third largest biofuels company in Brazil, producing more than 2 billion liters of bioethanol and more than 20 billion liters of other industrial and transportation fuels annually. In terms of hydrogen energy, Shell plans to build 390 hydrogen retail sites by 2023, with 230 sites using Shell products. Shell has multiple wind farms in the United States, the Netherlands and other countries, with wind power generating more than 500 megawatts per year.
BP is the deepest and most extensive international oil giant involved in the new energy field, and has always maintained a certain amount of new energy investment. BP regards biofuels as the company's main development direction in the future of new energy. After the expansion of three plants in Brazil, BP produced 795 million liters of ethanol equivalent in 2015. BP is also the energy partner of two of the world's largest hydrogen demonstration projects in Europe and the United States. It has more than 40 years of experience in hydrogen production and more than 10 years of experience in trial operation of automotive hydrogen refueling stations. BP and China's Ministry of Science and Technology's hydrogen energy cooperation project is progressing smoothly, and China's first hydrogen refueling station has been built in Beijing. Wind power is one of BP's largest renewable energy businesses, and BP currently operates 14 wind farms in seven US states with a capacity of 2.2 gigawatts. Since 2005, BP has gradually developed into one of the world's largest solar energy companies, accounting for 10% of the global solar market share.
Total is still planning to invest $500 million a year in the new energy sector at low oil prices, and plans to increase its new energy market share to 15% to 20% by 2035, and the solar energy business will reach the top three in the world. Total is Europe's leading biofuels producer. Biofuels development began in 1992 with the development of two major first-generation biofuels, ethyl tert-butyl ether (ETBE) and vegetable oil methyl ester (VOME) produced from ethanol. . Total is currently developing second generation biofuels. In 2011, Total acquired a 66% stake in Sunpower, the world's second-largest solar panel manufacturer, for $1.4 billion. Sunpower achieved a net profit of $246 million in 2014 and has become a pillar of Total's performance. In 2016, Total acquired SaftGroupe, a French battery manufacturing company, for 950 million euros. The company is a global leader in nickel-cadmium batteries, high-performance disposable lithium batteries, and lithium-ion satellite batteries.
Chevron is the world's largest geothermal producer and a global leader in geothermal development with geothermal projects in the Philippines and Indonesia.
From the above-mentioned development of new energy by the five major international oil companies, it can be seen that under the low oil price, in order to cultivate new performance growth points and enhance the company's ability to resist risks, the international oil giants actively adjust their development strategies and re-plan new energy layout. Among the top five companies, BP is the most powerful and most in-depth development of new energy. The most single one is Chevron. The new energy projects that are most valued by the top five companies are biofuels. Four companies are actively developing; secondly, hydrogen, wind and solar projects are being valued, and two companies are developing. As the energy storage battery in the key link of new energy vehicles, only Total is involved.
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