Xiao Jiang sees the market: The copper shock has not changed. The aluminum rebounded briefly. Copper: Last week, LME copper showed a weak trend. Due to the recent skyrocketing oil price, it continued to hit a new high. The price was high at US$44.92 per barrel. The rising energy price added to the market. Anxieties about the pace and breadth of the global economic recovery; and the relatively weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report, the slow growth in U.S. employment, and the slowdown in the economy, at the Fed’s Fed open market meeting on August 10th. According to the current state of economic development, whether the U.S. federal funds rate will be raised from the current 1.25% to 1.5%. (This morning, the Fed has formally decided to raise interest rates to 1.5%.) This has caused the fund to take profits and has sold frequently, causing LME copper to fall below $2,750. Shanghai Copper showed a low volatility after falling lower due to the influence of the LME copper market last Friday. The closing price was about three to four hundred yuan. Although Shanghai Copper plunged last Friday, due to the continued decline in copper inventory announced on the Shanghai Futures Exchange over the weekend (August 5), the inventory data for designated warehouses showed that copper decreased by 9,263 tons to 34,602 tons. Shanghai Copper opened higher this week, and new buying funds were mostly ignored by the LME's adjustment pattern. The copper price increased by nearly 10,000 lots and the gains increased. The spread between the forward contract and the recent contract is still widening, and it has exceeded 1,500 yuan. The close of the August contract is approaching, and the short covering will support the strength of the spot contract this month, and it will play a supporting role for the forward contract. Investors are not optimistic about the far month, and the higher prices of copper are entirely due to the tight spot supply situation that makes the spot market gap larger. As stocks continued to decrease, with the full support of the fundamentals, spot prices rose steadily with the rise of the period, of which spot premiums have been maintained at 500-550 yuan / ton. According to the spot transaction reference price issued by Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Market, the spot copper price hit a high of 29,250 yuan/ton this week. Due to the relatively low copper price ratio between Shanghai and London in the previous period, the volume of domestic copper imports to Hong Kong dropped sharply. Despite the recent power shortage and the impact of off-season sales in summer, the spot supply of Shanghai copper is still very good, and the current price ratio between Shanghai and London is 9.2-9.5. Imported copper can make a slight profit, and copper pressure in the third quarter will be due to the price The increase has slowed down, but it may have suppressed the domestic supply of spot copper. However, the renewed boom in consumption will reduce these contradictions. Aluminium: The aluminum price rebounded strongly last week. As a larger aluminum oxide supplier, Chinalco announced that it will reduce its alumina price from RMB 4300/ton to RMB 3750/ton while the price of spot aluminum ingots will be reduced from RMB 15,000/ton to RMB 14,850/ton. Shanghai Aluminum immediately turned into a whirlwind, stabilized, and settled at a higher price, showing a stronger rebound. Futures aluminum prices have continued to rise, trading volumes have been significantly enlarged, and they have steadily risen under the influence of new buying and buying, and have gone out of the rare strong market. It is reported that in line with the upward trend of LME aluminum, it is also a relatively late lunch to seize domestic export tax rebate policy. The recent domestic aluminum export situation is unexpectedly better than expected and has become a support factor for aluminum prices. In the non-ferrous metal market in Shanghai, the spot aluminum reached 15,350 yuan/ton on August 10, up by nearly 500 yuan/ton from the previous week. What needs to be vigilant is that the rise in aluminum prices lacks a solid foundation. Under the premise that the pressure of inventory and oversupply remain unchanged, the rebound may be short-lived and there will still be bottoming requirements.
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