The General Administration of Customs recently released the import and export situation of China's foreign trade in the first quarter of this year. According to customs statistics, from January to March, China’s total import and export value was 617.85 billion US dollars, an increase of 44.1% over the same period last year. Of this total, exports were US$316.17 billion, up 28.7%; imports were US$301.68 billion, up 64.6%; trade surplus was US$14.49 billion, down 76.7%.
The Market Research Center conducted a statistical analysis of the March 2010 National Export Key Commodity Value Table provided by the General Administration of Customs, and found that the industries with the largest year-on-year increase in export value were machinery, textiles, clothing, home appliances, and steel.
Machinery and equipment investment stimulated the industry to revitalize export data: According to customs statistics, in the first quarter of this year, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 189.08 billion US dollars, an increase of 31.5%, higher than the overall export growth rate of 2.8 percentage points in the same period, accounting for China's exports during the same period. The total value is 59.8%. Among them, the export of electrical and electronic products was 75.89 billion US dollars, up 34.5%; the export of mechanical equipment was 64.71 billion US dollars, up 28.8%. In addition, imported electromechanical products reached US$137.76 billion, an increase of 49.8%.
Industry Status: In response to the once-in-a-century financial crisis, China launched a 4 trillion investment plan at the end of 2008. According to the project cycle, the first quarter of 2009 was the project approval and implementation fund stage, and the second quarter entered the pre-level land leveling relocation. In the third quarter and the fourth quarter, projects have entered the start-up period. In 2009, the sales of construction machinery industry also started from the second quarter, and began to enter high-speed growth in the third quarter, which basically coincided with the progress period of the project of 4 trillion investment projects. Since the third quarter is the rainy season in the southern region, the fourth quarter is the severe winter in the northern region, which will inevitably affect the normal progress of some projects. Therefore, a large number of 4 trillion investment projects will enter the construction phase in the first half of this year. Coupled with the continuation of the construction scale of the newly started projects last year, it will inevitably drive the construction machinery industry to maintain a strong sales trend. In addition, the continued recovery of the domestic economy has also led to rapid recovery of downstream demand such as coal, which has expanded the imagination of the industry's continued high growth.
At the same time, regional economic revitalization and key projects are important support for industry demand. Although the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the country will not have a high growth rate of more than 30% last year, the promotion of urbanization in the central and western regions, including the revitalization plan of Haixi Construction, Guangxi Region, and Minjiang Economic Region, plus the state, A number of key projects in the province and the city that have started and are about to start construction, the market is not expected to require real estate investment and industrial investment in 2010, China's fixed asset investment will complete more than 20% growth level, therefore, regional economy and key projects It will be an important support for industry demand in 2010. Although it will face structural adjustment and credit tightening pressure in the second half of the year, regional economic revitalization and key project construction are expected to support the industry to maintain a certain level of growth. It is expected that the industry growth rate will be about 20% in 2010.
Investment strategy: In the machinery and equipment industry, the first-line varieties have the potential for valuation improvement: Sany Heavy Industry, Xugong Machinery, Zoomlion; second-line varieties have more than expected elasticity: Xiagong, Liugong and Shantui.
Steel prices rose, export surged plate opportunities are better than long products export data: in the first quarter of this year, China's steel billet and rough forgings exports 6 million US dollars, an increase of 258.2%, ranking the top export growth year-on-year, steel exports 672.529 million US dollars, an increase of 13.7 %.
Industry status: After the holiday, the social stock of steel products gradually declined. With the gradual transfer of downstream demand after the holiday, the social inventories of steel products have shown a downward turning point, which has been declining for four consecutive weeks, but its absolute quantity is still at a relatively high level, which has made the steel price continue to rise. Obstacles.
Steel prices continued to rise, and sheet prices were stronger than long products. Domestic steel prices have maintained a rising trend for several weeks, and the price increase of domestic sheet products is higher than the price increase of long products.
The price of upstream raw materials rose, and downstream demand rose steadily. The price of iron ore has risen madly, the new construction area of ​​housing continues to increase, and infrastructure construction has driven demand for steel. In the first quarter, the growth rate of automobile production and sales exceeded 70%. The effect of household appliances policy has become more prominent. Steel exports will continue to rebound in the first half of the year.
The output will reach new heights and the elimination of backward production capacity should be accelerated. In February, the average daily output of crude steel in China has reached 1.798 million tons, a record high, equivalent to 647 million tons of annual crude steel output. The situation of overcapacity is still severe. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology once again proposed to increase the elimination of backward production capacity, and through the market reversal mechanism, to guide steel enterprises to eliminate backward production capacity according to law.
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