Copper and Aluminum Weekly Review (8.30-9.3) In terms of market transactions, although August has already passed, consumption and transactions have not completely emerged from the off-season, and LME copper and aluminum trading volumes have shrunk. The strike on Tuesday caused the price of copper to rebound in the short term, but the increase in inventory once again prompted a long open position. Copper prices fell to around 2,700 after rising to a high of 2,800. Shanghai Copper once appeared nearly strong and weak, and the spot price reached 29,300 yuan/ton this week, but the high buying was not active enough. The spot price and the recent price weakened relatively later this week. · Strike temporarily boosted copper prices On August 31st (Tuesday), the Peruvian copper mines Toquepala and Cuajone went on strike indefinitely, and a total capacity of 350,000 tons of copper concentrate stopped production. The strike has a boosting effect on prices. In fact, the reduction of copper concentrate has not threatened the supply of refined copper, so it is only a short-term factor. ·Inventory increased again but the market may be more concerned about things that have not happened yet. After the sudden increase of more than 30,000 tons of LME stocks in the previous week, as expected, stocks increased again this week and market sentiment was again shaken. Wednesday's LME copper stocks An increase of 6375 tons, including Singapore stocks increased by 6700 tons, an increase of 825 tons of Singapore stocks on Thursday. In China, it is said that there are already several thousand tons of spot copper in storage. In fact, the recent favorable trading conditions are favorable for imports, which is in line with this phenomenon. However, the inventory of the exchanges has not been clearly reflected (down from 4,300 tons of copper stocks this week). In addition to the anxiety caused by the rise in stocks in the employment data, the exchange rate market and the metal market are awaiting the August non-farm payrolls data to be released this Friday. The economic data released this week showed mixed performance but none of them represented any representativeness. The consumer confidence index for August, which was released on Tuesday, fell sharply to 98.2, a drop of more than 7 points. In August, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to 57.3, compared with 64.7 the previous month. The factory orders announced on Thursday exceeded expectations by 1.3%. . From the perspective of the total amount of positions held by LMEs, the overall situation is in a shrinking state. The market lacks a clear trend. From the perspective of changes in sub-positions, the positions held before September 15 have been reduced to more than 18,000 hands. The possibility is not great. From the price change point of view, it has not yet shaken off the turbulence situation, but copper prices started to fall at 2,800 points in the second half of this week and constituted a short-term pressure. The current support is at 2650. If you wear 2650, the next target will be 2550. . Aluminium: In the middle of the copper market, copper and aluminum prices have been hesitant before copper prices fell sharply. Shanghai Aluminum and London Aluminum were relatively hesitant. Lun Aluminum's three-month period was near the 1700 line, while Shanghai Aluminum's price was around 16,000 yuan/ton. Trading volume shrank relatively. Reduced quantity. Shanghai aluminum main contract 0411 fluctuated between 15890 and 16130 yuan/ton, and closed at 15,960 yuan/ton. Stock exchange stocks continued to decrease by 2,902 tons this week. LME stocks continued to decline, and the amount of warehouse receipts cancelled on the day increased to around 130,000 tons. Another supporting factor in the market is still the strike. Alcan’s strike at Becancour Aluminum Plant, which began in July, is still continuing without results; in addition, the Venalum smelter in Venezuela may also vote in the next few days. In the domestic spot market, the market spends most of the time without direction. On the supplier side, the aluminum plant, especially the large aluminum plant, has a certain bullish willingness. The price range was once raised to RMB 16,400/tonne; on the consumer side, it took a little hesitation and the relative weakness in East China also limited the price in the Guangdong region. Space, in addition, market sources said the apparent increase in scrap supply may shift some of the demand for spot aluminum to the scrap market. As prices fall, the buying interest of the consumer will further weaken. From the fundamentals of aluminum alone, there is no obvious negative, but it follows the characteristics of other metals to make their price changes relatively passive. If the price of copper falls further, aluminum prices will inevitably fall, but LME consumer buying has strong support. Therefore, even if aluminum prices fall, the space is relatively small, the main support below the 1650 US dollars / ton. The balance of buying and selling power in the domestic market will also be tilted. The current relative strength of Shanghai Aluminum will be weakened (the current three-month price ratio of the two cities has exceeded 9.5); Shanghai Aluminum was supported at 158/600 yuan/ton in March, and the alumina cost The increase will also enhance Shanghai Aluminum's resilience.
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