For the steel price increase since March , I believe many people can see it very clearly; although the steel price is constantly rising, the actual terminal transaction is still light and people feel boring, and even some steel traders said that this year 1, 2 In March, the actual consumption of steel was less than half of the same period last year; weak demand is still the main obstacle to the upward trend of steel prices. According to the market report of China Steel Spot Network on March 29, in the past two days, under the pressure of the demand for funds to withdraw from the market, some steel traders took the initiative to reduce the price of shipping, intending to achieve cash as much as possible, forcing steel prices. The rising market was temporarily terminated by the terminal. The prices of construction steels led by rebar and wire rods were weakly adjusted. The prices of other sheet steels also basically stopped rising and remained stable. After a relatively rapid increase in steel prices, market prices have begun to fluctuate repeatedly due to the lack of demand and financial pressures. The author believes that in the few trading days before the Ching Ming Festival, the pressure on market prices will rise. Bigger. Moreover, steel traders should also be well aware that the rise in steel prices in this round does not have much to do with the release of downstream demand; more is the speculation. From the 2011 annual report released by steel prices have seen, loss-making steel prices are increasing, China Steel Association released in January and February data the profitability of steel prices rose 42.3% is a more Chinese steel enterprises face losses sustained negative earnings The steel mill took the lead in launching the plan to increase the steel price. The steel mill frequently raised the ex-factory price in the previous period. Under the perseverance and psychological support of the steel price upside down, the steel traders immediately raised the market price, which led to some middlemen at the bottom. The beginning of the receipt of the warehouse, causing the illusion of rising trading atmosphere in the steel market. However, due to the continuous rainy weather at that time, the terminal procurement continued to hold the weight of the money, and the procurement was basically carried out on demand; at the same time, some steel traders closed the warehouse according to the traditional ideas when the steel price rose. Reluctant to sell, stocks to be up, not only may cause the steel price to rise ahead of schedule, the most important thing is that the reluctance of steel traders may lead to lower customer service, resulting in downstream sales channels blocked; so the author's idea is that the current When the industry enters a period of low profit, it is difficult for steel prices to have a turning point in the inflection point. Basically, it will maintain a relatively repeated ups and downs. The steel traders’ pull-up is best based on the shipments. Only the shipments will reach a certain level. The degree, and then the price increase, such a virtuous cycle can stand in the normal development of the steel market. For this round of steel price rises, the author has always been cautious, and believes that it is difficult to have a one-sided upward adjustment in the later period. The biggest possibility is that the upward trend will be slowly rising, and some of the excessive trade operations of steel traders are very likely. Breaking this weak trend requires attention. At present, although the weather has improved, we can't say for sure how long it will last, and the release of downstream demand is crucial because the country's economic transformation is at a critical time, and the demand for steel is weak. Therefore, the later iterations are repeated. Concussion consolidation is inevitable. While the fundamentals of demand have not ushered in a fundamental improvement, steel prices have risen infinitely, but the expansion of steel mills' profit margins may allow them to continue to amplify production capacity. It is necessary to know that with the launch of a batch of new production capacity in the industry, China's steel production capacity The current daily average of 1.9 million tons of crude steel is still at a relatively low level, and the rebound in earnings will inevitably stimulate steel mills to increase production capacity; once again, the steel market, which has already exceeded supply, will again cause inventory pressure. The weak demand will inevitably lead to the destocking of steel in the later stage of China will last longer. From this point of view, the steel price will continue to rise and will encounter multiple resistances. The author believes that the steel price in the market will remain for a long period of time. Will be in a period of narrow fluctuations, steel traders need to be cautious about the changes in the market.  Electric Grinder
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