Affected by the continued downturn in the global shipping market, the Chinese shipbuilding industry, which was originally in a difficult situation, is even worse, and the problems accumulated in the industry for a long time have begun to surface. “In the past, it was difficult to order, difficult to start, difficult to finance, and now it is difficult to survive.†Bao Zhangjing, chief researcher of China Shipbuilding Industry Economic Research Center, told reporters. Although the industry shuffle has been called for two years in the industry, the real bankruptcy has just begun.
The order quantity is the lowest in ten years
On July 24, Guangzhou Shipyard International Co., Ltd., the crown of China's shipbuilding industry, announced its first-half results. It expects net profit to fall by more than 50% year-on-year. China's largest private ship company, Rongsheng Heavy Industry, confirmed that it had not received it in the first half of the year. The embarrassing business situation of an order.
According to media reports, due to overcapacity in the shipbuilding industry, the price of new ships was pushed to a new low in eight years, and caused more than 1,500 shipyards in the country to lose 49% of orders in the first half of this year. The orders of the domestic shipbuilding industry have been reduced to nearly 10 years. At the lowest level, at the same time, the industry's gross profit margin also fell to a historical low. Many shipyards are “losing money to make moneyâ€, and there are no exceptions to orders or profits.
Looking back at history, China's central enterprises and private enterprises have entered the shipbuilding industry in a large amount in 2007 and have experienced a short period of development. In 2010, China's shipbuilding industry surpassed South Korea to become the world's number one. At the moment, China's three major shipbuilding indicators have fallen year on year, and the first position is no longer guaranteed.
According to the statistics of China Shipbuilding Industry Association, in the first five months of this year, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 22.53 million deadweight tons, down 10.1% year-on-year; the new ship order volume was 9.54 million deadweight tons, down 47.3% year-on-year; The volume was 134 million dwt, a year-on-year decrease of 27%.
China's shipbuilding industry has long been criticized for some problems, such as overcapacity, lack of research and development, short industrial chain, serious homogenization, and low value-added ship type. In this year's extremely cold shipbuilding, it has become a cause of death. In this market, some large shipyards can still rely on old orders to barely support, and some of the small boat factories have sunk into bankruptcy.
The bankruptcy tide is coming
Last month, due to the debt of 300 million yuan, Zhejiang Jinzhou Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., the largest export ship company in Taizhou, Zhejiang, filed a bankruptcy application with the court. This is also the third bankrupt shipbuilding enterprise in Zhejiang after Ningbo Hengfu Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. and Blue Sky Shipbuilding Group last year. In fact, not only Zhejiang, the Sino-Korea joint venture Dalian Oriental Seiko [0.00 0.00% stocks research report] Ship Co., Ltd. also declared bankruptcy in June, and many shipyards in Chongqing stopped working after the Spring Festival due to the lack of shipbuilding. Go out of business.
Tan Zuoyu, general manager of China State Shipbuilding Corporation, told the media that the Chinese shipbuilding industry is being shrouded in "bankruptcy" and that 50% of shipyards will go bankrupt in the next two to three years. At present, some enterprises still have old orders, but if there are no new orders, if the situation continues, the companies facing bankruptcy in the second half may not only be closed to the rumor.
"The bankruptcy takes place on a large scale. This is the best way to get rid of capacity. It is equal to squeezing out the bubble caused by unconventional expansion in recent years." Bao Zhangjing told reporters that in this round of industry reshuffle, the proportion of bankruptcy must be Far greater than mergers and acquisitions.
Bao Zhangjing said that although the bankruptcy of these non-competitive enterprises may cause the entire industry to return to normal, it is certainly very painful for individual ship companies. "A few years ago, during the booming period of the industry, private capital actively entered a large number of medium-sized small boat factories. They earned all the money they earned, and they also lost money. Now bankruptcy can't blame the market, and can't expect the government to save the market. Respond to this environment with its own viability."
Merger and reorganization is not easy
The upstream of the shipbuilding industry is the shipping industry. The market demand is closely related to the transportation volume of bulk commodities such as international coal and iron ore. The downstream is connected with steel, aluminum and electric motors, which have a keen reaction to the macro economy. At present, the downturn in the shipbuilding industry is not just China, it is reflected in the world.
It is understood that at present, the Korean shipbuilding industry is also facing some difficulties, but the number of orders received during the same period far exceeds that of their Chinese counterparts. At the same time, the number of orders for high value-added ships that South Korea has received has not decreased but has increased. Chinese shipbuilding companies have long relied on low-end manufacturing, low-cost, large-scale expansion models have been difficult to win in international competition.
The financial commentator Ye Tan once wrote that the Chinese shipbuilding industry should learn the Korean model. The so-called Korean model is a model that focuses on technology and large-capital group operations. “There is no shortcut for China's industrial transformation. Shipbuilding companies with low technology content and high pollution can only be eliminated. The higher-end manufacturing enterprises can become market-oriented and competitive new consortiums. The key is to keep these companies The market is wolf, not by lazy monopoly aristocrats to dominate this change."
However, for the majority of domestic shipbuilding companies, it is not easy to merge and reorganize. In July, GSI acquired Guangzhou Zhongchuan Longxue Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China Shipbuilding, and Guangguang International CEO Han Guangde has moved to Longxue Shipbuilding. However, at present, there is no public disclosure on the specific purchase price, acquisition method and future company strategy.
"Everyone has encountered difficulties, how to hold the group, how to get warm is a problem." Bao Zhangjing believes that, first of all, the Chinese boat enterprises have almost no right to speak in the process of industry shuffling. Mergers also have to be targeted, and their own business is not good, and will not be seen by other companies. Secondly, large companies have complicated situations in the development process, and they all seek benefits from their own perspectives, making it difficult to achieve a multi-win situation.
In April, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on Further Strengthening the Merger and Reorganization of Enterprises", proposing to promote the implementation of strong alliances, cross-regional mergers and acquisitions, overseas mergers and acquisitions and investment cooperation to promote industrial concentration and promote scale and intensification. Operate and rank the ship as a key industry to accelerate mergers and acquisitions.
Xia Xiaowen, an analyst at China Shipbuilding Industry Economic Research Center, believes that in the process of industry elimination and integration, some enterprises with large scale, good business performance and high production technology will eventually survive. In addition, some ship companies that focus on market segments and focus on featured production will also stay.
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