The small size of the styrene market is difficult to make big

In December, the styrene market showed signs of loosening, and a slight increase in prices was staged. It finally got rid of the situation of a sharp turnaround in August. However, under the influence of many negative factors such as the fact that downstream demand is not substantively favorable, the macro environment is not satisfactory, and the pace of capital recovery is accelerated at the end of the year, it is difficult for this small aubergine to perform a big job, and the market will be weak or will continue.

There are three main reasons for this increase in styrene prices: First, the external disk drive, Asian styrene market prices have steadily increased, the weekly gains once reached 42 US dollars (t price, the same below), with rising domestic styrene market prices; Second, raw materials High prices, international pure benzene prices skyrocketing, long-piled pure benzene market has finally shown a warmer trend, affected by this, Sinopec raised benzene prices, boosted the domestic market, businesses see more mentality increases, generally reluctant to sell, continue to inject vitality into the market For the styrene market played a cost support role; Third, the current price has been in the vicinity of the styrene cost line, the spot price reduction is greater, the spot transaction price is once again significantly lower than the styrene ex-factory price, the manufacturer pressure increases, quite price Willingness is strong.

The domestic styrene spot market has continued to decline since August, and all aspects of the market have been weighed down to varying degrees. Although there have been frequent stagnation and repeated consolidations in November, the fundamentals of the market fundamentals still dominate the market, especially in determining the direction of the market. The demand is still no sign of improvement. With the gradual drop in temperature, the operating rate of polystyrene, ABS, and expanded polystyrene plants in the north will fall to 56 percent, mainly due to the consumption of raw materials, and there will be less spot purchases, and the low demand situation will increase slightly for the styrene market. It is a fundamental negative factor.

Polystyrene prices were mixed. In the case of raw material styrene rose slightly, the mentality of polystyrene merchants improved slightly. Persistence of end-users did not improve, resulting in petrochemical production enterprises are not active enthusiasm, the operating rate is only maintained at about 70% Yanshan Petrochemical Polystyrene Plant will stop on November 30th. Although the current supply of low-priced polystyrene spot market gradually decreased, but the demand for terminal small appliances continues to be weak, the market is dominated by small orders, it is difficult to have large-scale demand for the raw material styrene market is difficult to form a support.

ABS also faces the same problem. At present, the home appliance market is in the demand off-season. Both the domestic demand and the external demand are relatively flat. At present, many low-production stocks are maintained. The goods are mostly purchased on-demand, mainly based on small orders. The shrinking market transaction volume led to the occurrence of production cuts and shutdowns at different levels in ABS manufacturers. The operating rate was less than 70%, and the demand for styrene was limited.

The demand for expanded polystyrene is not improving, and speculators who are just around the corner are returning to rationality, and the market is eager to wait and see. Although Christmas is approaching, export-oriented home appliance companies in South China have not seen any improvement. Demand for relative packaging materials has remained flat. The demand for northern sheet companies has basically ended. The fundamentals of foamed polystyrene have continued to deteriorate, and terminal companies have purchased a small amount on demand. In the spot market, shipments are not smooth, and the production of foamed polystyrene companies is low. More production methods are used to stop production or reduce production. The operating rate of production facilities is as low as 50%, which is more difficult for the raw material market to form.

The macro environment is equally unsatisfactory, further suppressing the market to be more mental. Internationally, the European debt crisis has further intensified. The credit ratings of countries such as Portugal and Belgium have been lowered, and the German 10-year auction of government bonds has suffered the worst situation since the establishment of the euro zone. At the same time, the economic situation in the euro zone has a downward trend. In November, the manufacturing activity in the euro area is shrinking at the fastest pace in more than two years. The policy statement of the European Central Bank President Draghi after the central bank’s December interest-rate meeting has not been able to The market is concerned about any commitment to increase the purchase of government bonds, and has released the expectation that the 2012 growth rate of the euro area will enter a recession, which will make the market look more depressed.

Domestically, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell below 50% for the first time since March 2009, and was below the historical average of 2.9 percentage points. It shows that the domestic and international market demand for manufacturing slows down, the production power of enterprises is insufficient, and the manufacturing economy has generally declined, especially for large-scale enterprises. Although on December 5th, the state lowered the deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, which means that tightening monetary policy since 2010 may have shifted, and future credit may be further relaxed. However, it has a limited effect on the market, with the continuous hitting the US dollar against the US dollar, and the outflow of funds making the market trend weak, which is unfavorable to boost market bullishness. Market merchants take a wait-and-see attitude, operate cautiously, and fast-forward and fast-out.

Sufficient supply is also an important factor in the weakening of the styrene market. The output of domestic manufacturers and the arrival and arrival of import and export cargo are sufficient, and the inventory is always maintained at around 70,000 tons, which corresponds to the demand market in January. The supply is abundant, and inventory is under pressure.

In summary, the increase in styrene this time is not due to the increase in demand, under the influence of many bad factors, it is expected that the market rebounded sharply difficult to appear, 10,000 yuan mark or the top, the market is still dominated by the turmoil.