In the past 10 years, Japan’s position in the world timber trade has dropped significantly. Japanese timber imports began in 1948 when Nagoya Port imported 770m3 Nanyang timber logs. In the following 60 years, Japan’s GDP has increased from 2.7 trillion yen to 474 trillion yen, and the population has increased from 80 million to 127 million. Timber imports reached a peak of 52 million m3 in 1973 and floated between 30 million and 40 million m3 in 1997. They fell sharply in 1998 and fell to 13.9 million m3 in 2009.
I. The rise and fall of Japanese timber imports
In the past 50 years, Japanese timber imports have been divided into five stages from the rise to the recession:
1. High-speed growth stage (1960-1973). This period coincided with rapid economic growth, and both residential construction and timber imports increased significantly. From 1960 to 1973, the number of residential starts increased from 420,000 to 1.9 million, a 3.5-fold increase; timber imports increased from 5.5 million m3 to 52 million m3 in 1973, an increase of nearly 8.5 times. From the types of imported wood, logs, especially Nanyang timber, account for more than half. The oil crisis of 1973 ended the rapid growth of timber imports.
2. Stabilization phase (1974-1980). The number of residential starts increased from 1.3 million to 1.5 million, which is basically stable. Timber imports have also remained at around 45 million m3. The exchange rate rose from 300 yen to 240 yen. The composition ratio of imported materials has remained basically unchanged. It is still composed of four major imported logs + US and Canada sawn timber, including North American timber, Nanyang timber, Russian timber, New Zealand timber (New Zealand timber market quote, New Zealand timber enterprise Daquan).
3. Downturn stage (1981-1985). This is in the downturn before the bubble economy. The number of residential starts is 1.1 million to 1.2 million, and the exchange rate fluctuates between 220 and 230 yen. Timber imports decreased from 45 million m3 in 1979 to 33 million m3 in 1985, but the timber import structure did not change significantly from the second phase.
4. Diversification stage of import channels (1986-1997). During the bubble economy, the structure and source of timber imports have changed a lot. Imports of South Seawood logs and North American logs were reduced from 10 million m3 to 5 million m3, and imports of European sawn timber increased from zero to 1.7 million m3, and plywood imports surged from 1.5 million m3 to 5.3 million m3. Imported products have also shifted from wood-based to sawn timber and plywood. The supply sources have increased in Europe, Africa, South America and other regions on the basis of the original four major producing areas, showing diversified trends.
These changes are based on the industrialization of the resource country and the continued appreciation of the yen after the “Plaza Agreementâ€. In this context, Japan's lack of purchasing power and rising wages have made it unable to form a “raw material import + processing†pattern, which has increased “finished product importsâ€, resulting in a reduction in domestic sawmills and plywood factories. On the contrary, the import of wooden furniture increased from 65 billion yen in 1989 to 141.5 billion yen in 1998, more than doubled.
5. The recession phase (1998-present). After the economic crisis in 1998, timber imports decreased rapidly, and the number of residential starts was reduced from 1.2 million to 1.1 million. The import of wood decreased from the peak of 31 million m3 in 1999 to 22 million m3 in 2006, a decrease of 30%. Moreover, in 2007-2009, affected by the global financial crisis, the import volume decreased from 22 million m3 to 14 million m3, and then decreased by 1/3.
Compared with 1999, the import volume of logs in 2009 was only 4.09 million m3, a decrease of 74%, of which Russian materials decreased by nearly 90%, Nanyang wood decreased by 88%, North American and New Zealand materials decreased by about half; sawn timber imports were 5.77 million m3, a decrease of 38%; the import of wood-based panels (including laminated materials) was 4.08 million m3, a decrease of nearly 32%. In the past 10 years, the total amount of Japanese timber imports has decreased from 31.13 million m3 to 13.94 million m3, a decrease of 55%.
During this period, the reduction of domestic demand led to a decrease in timber imports. At the same time, timber imports also changed from primary and semi-finished products such as logs, sawn timber and plywood to finished products such as furniture, building materials and interior decoration materials. Imports of furniture continued to increase, and by 2008 imports had increased from 141.5 billion yen in 1998 to 209.5 billion yen. Especially since the beginning of 2000, the supply of domestically produced materials has increased steadily, and the volume of timber imports has dropped significantly.
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