Second, the trend prediction <br> <br> the fourth quarter, the overall operation of the machinery industry can continue to maintain a good, high-speed trend is expected major economic indicators of growth rate can be maintained at about 30%.
(1) The order quantity is full. Currently, the machinery industry-i, -9 volume meets the production in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that the output of major products for the whole year will reach 210,000 large and medium-sized tractors, up 1.8% year-on-year; power generation equipment will reach 120 million kilowatts, up 12% year-on-year; metal cutting machine tool output will reach 580,000 units, up 4% year-on-year. Among them, CNC machine tools can reach 116,000 units, an increase of 36% year-on-year; automobile production can reach 85 million 8.7 million units, including 4.6 million cars, up 24% year-on-year.
(II) The international market continues to be optimistic about the complementarity of domestic and foreign markets for machinery products, which has increased the ability of the machinery industry to resist risks. At present, most of the export products are stable. At the end of last year and the first half of this year, the proportion of export value-added tax rebates decreased, and the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar affected the export prices, but the export volume did not decrease. Enterprises pay more attention to the evasion of foreign trade financial risks and non-tariff trade barriers. It is expected that export trade will continue to grow in the fourth quarter.
(III) Maintaining economic benefits The external factors are conducive to the production capacity. The tightening of bank monetary roots is conducive to strengthening the internal fund management and reducing the expansion of accounts receivable. Adequate tasks are conducive to economies of scale. The price of raw materials has risen steadily, making it easy for companies to cope.
Third, several issues that need attention
(1) Renminbi; The impact of changes in l2 rate on exports The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB continued to appreciate, and it has recently approached 1:7.5, which is the expected bottom line for most export companies at the beginning of the year. Export companies need to pay special attention to the trend of RMB appreciation and respond well.
(II) The new trend of fixed asset investment was transformed from the main relocation process, technological transformation and production capacity to the construction of the industrial park last year. The "industrial park" and "development zone" characterized by machinery manufacturing, like the electronics and textile products parks of the past, have the potential to expand, and should be vigilant. At present, with the socialized division of labor in the machinery industry becoming more and more fine, the development of industrial clusters characterized by similar processes and similar products is accelerating, casting, molds, mechanical basic parts, auto parts, automobiles, engineering machinery, general machinery, etc. Host products have become the goal of building a garden. From the characteristics of the development of the machinery industry, the development of specialized production is the direction of the industry's development and optimization of the structure. However, if it is too high and too large, it will increase the hidden danger of oversupply, and it will also cause the current fixed assets investment scale of the machinery industry. One of the reasons for continuing to increase.
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