It is expected that industrial value added, investment, consumption and other data will continue to remain high. Macroeconomic data for November will be announced next week. Experts and institutions expect that as the economy continues to improve, with the hikes and the impact of rain and snow, 11 The monthly CPI will turn into positive growth year-on-year, and the increase may be around 0.6-0.8%. The year-on-year increase in PPI will increase sharply in November, but it is still negative. In addition, China's industrial added value, investment, consumption and other data will continue to remain high.
Since entering November, due to the influence of rain and snow, China's food prices have risen considerably. According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce, vegetable prices have risen more than 10% per week since November, and fruit prices have risen strongly, including meat, eggs and food prices.
Ha Jiming, chief economist of CICC, believes that the year-on-year increase in CPI may rebound sharply in November. On the one hand, food prices rebounded due to weather, and food CPI may be between 0-0.2%. On the other hand, refined oil prices The increase in non-food ratios has also remained at a high level, and the non-food CPI is expected to increase by 0.2%-0.3%.
The report of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center believes that under the combined effect of hikes and weather factors, the year-on-year growth of CPI in November will turn into positive growth as scheduled. Bank of Communications predicts that the hikes factor in November will increase by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, which will drive the CPI to rebound sharply year-on-year. At the same time, since November, China has experienced large-scale cooling and rain and snow weather, which has led to a significant increase in food prices. . The combination of the two will make the CPI in November will turn positive. It is predicted that the CPI growth in November will be around 0.8%, which will be corrected for the first time after nine consecutive months of negative growth.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of the Industrial Bank's fund operation center, predicted that the food price increase in November will be around 0.9%, falling within the range of 0.6%-1.2%. The non-food price growth in November was slightly lower than that in October. Within the range of 0.1%-0.3%. The CPI growth rate will be 0.2%-0.6%, with a median value of 0.4%; the CPI year-on-year growth rate is expected to fall within the range of 0.5%-0.9%, with a median value of 0.7%.
For the PPI, the industry generally expects that the price of industrial products will increase again after the previous period's upward trend. Therefore, the year-on-year increase of PPI will continue to rise sharply in November, but will remain within the negative range. Industrial Bank expects the PPI to reach 0.5% in November, and it will fall within the range of -2.4% to -1.8%, with a median of -2.1%. China CITIC Bank expects PPI to be around -2.5% in November, and Guotai Junan Securities expects PPI to exceed -1.9% year-on-year, falling between -1% and 0%.
In November, China's industrial added value, investment, consumption and other data are expected to continue to maintain high levels. Institutions generally predict that industrial added value will accelerate to around 18% in November. November is the traditional "off-season" of investment, coupled with the gradual implementation of policies to curb overcapacity and promote the development of low-carbon economy, and investment growth has slowed down. Based on this calculation, the fixed assets investment in urban areas increased by 32.5% from January to November. The consumption growth rate in November may fall slightly to around 15.5%, mainly considering that the bad weather in November will have a certain negative impact on consumption.
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