China's photovoltaic industry has broad prospects for development

Photovoltaic products domestic and international market environment Shangpu Consulting believes that although the world economic recovery has been better than expected since 2010, the unemployment rate in the United States, Japan, and the European Union remains high, consumer confidence has slowed down, and the real estate market and the private economy have not yet fully started. The adjustment slows down. The recovery of the world economy is difficult and tortuous, and it may enter a period of low- and medium-speed growth. In 2010, in the face of the complicated and ever-changing domestic and international environment, while continuing to implement the package of financial crisis, China has accelerated the transformation of its economic development mode and economic restructuring, and the economy has grown steadily, and continues to develop in the direction of macroeconomic regulation and control. The photovoltaic industry chain photovoltaic industry chain can be divided into three parts: upper, middle and lower. The upstream consists of three steps: refining solar grade silicon, manufacturing silicon rods and silicon germanium, and cutting silicon wafers. The middle reaches consists of the process of manufacturing batteries. Downstream consists of two parts: the embedded battery module and the sale of solar power system. The structural characteristics of the photovoltaic industry are characterized by a typical pyramid model: that is, the number of enterprises in the upstream is small, the number of enterprises engaged in the midstream business is much more than the upstream, and the number of downstream enterprises is the largest. China's PV market operation status Photovoltaic is a new type of power generation system that utilizes the photovoltaic effect of solar cell semiconductor materials to directly convert solar radiation energy into electrical energy. It has two modes of independent operation and grid-connected operation. China's current photovoltaic industry mainly refers to the crystalline silicon solar cell industry, and the photovoltaic industry has become the fastest growing industry in China's renewable energy industry after relaying wind power. The rapid development of China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry has benefited from the European PV market. According to data provided by Shangpu Consulting, China's PV cell production in 2010 has exceeded 50% of global production. At present, dozens of PV companies have been listed at home and abroad. According to estimates, the annual output value of the industry is about 300 billion yuan, and the number of direct employees is about 300,000. According to Cheng Longxian, an industry analyst at Shangpu Consulting, China's photovoltaic industry has embarked on a rapid development path, and has mastered key process technologies including solar cell manufacturing and polysilicon production. The equipment and major raw materials are gradually localized, and the industrial scale is expanding rapidly. The chain has been continuously improved, manufacturing costs have continued to decline, and it has strong international competitiveness. Overview of China's PV product supply in 2010 As of the end of 2010, China's thermal power generation still dominates the total installed capacity. The proportion of non-fossil energy installed capacity accounted for 26.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the previous year. Chart 2010 China's total installed capacity of power generation and new power generation equipment capacity (10,000 kW) Source: Shangpu Consulting Photovoltaic Industry and Macroeconomic Cycle According to the life cycle theory of sales growth division: sales growth rate greater than 10% for the growth period, 0.1%-10% for the input period or maturity period, less than 0 for the decline Period, may wish to make the following inferences for the photovoltaic industry:

Figure 2 Schematic diagram of the life cycle of China's PV industry Source: Cheng Longxian, an analyst at Shangpu Consulting, believes that the life cycle of the industry generally ranges from one hundred to several hundred years, and the shortest is about 60 years. Because photovoltaic products are closely related to the material and cultural life of human beings, it is at least certain The life cycle of the photovoltaic industry will be very long. Since we can't know the development of the industry in the future, and life cycle theory is an after-the-fact analysis, we are not sure how long the maturity of the industry will end, that is, how long. Analysis of China's PV market competition pattern Cheng Longxian said that although the global PV market is showing signs of recovery, due to the possibility of oversupply in the global solar market, relevant countries may therefore initiate trade protection. At present, more than 95% of China's PV products are mainly used for export. Therefore, the industry outlook is still not optimistic. Enterprises still need to plan ahead, enter emerging markets as soon as possible, further improve product quality, and gradually change the previous competition strategy based solely on price advantage. Shangpu Consulting expects that by the middle of 2011 or at the end of the year, the production capacity of Suntech Power, Jingao, Trina Solar, Yingli and Other enterprises will exceed 1.5 GW, and some even exceed two GW; a large number of “squeezed the head "The state-owned enterprises and private enterprises that come in, such as China Energy Conservation, Guodian Group, Dongfang Electric, Hongrun Construction, Xinhuaguang, etc., have made great strides. In 2011, it is unclear whether the world market can digest these new capacity, but what is certain is that the brutal competition and stifling of PV companies is inevitable. At present, the main problems in China's PV market, Shangpu Consulting Research believes that China has abundant solar energy resources and potentially huge market. After years of hard work, it has laid a good foundation for the greater development and larger-scale application of solar photovoltaic power generation. However, in order to achieve full commercialization, to further expand the market, we must also strive to eliminate market barriers that restrict development. These problems are mainly reflected in production costs, construction norms, funds, policies, and market development. In terms of production costs, manufacturers of solar cell modules in China have a small production scale, backward infrastructure and production equipment, and the overall level of product quality is lower than that of foreign products. The production cost of photovoltaic modules is about 20% higher than that of foreign countries. The high cost is the key reason for the rapid development and development of the market that affects photovoltaic power generation. In terms of financial barriers, funding shortages and long-term financing issues need to be resolved. The amount of funds used for research and development is small, and the bank loan interest rate is high. To develop photovoltaic projects, we must solve long-term financing channels. In terms of policy barriers, China has no practical incentives to encourage the development of photovoltaic power generation, including taxation policies, subsidy policies, photovoltaic grid-connected policies, and reasonable electricity price policies. In terms of market development barriers, 1. lack of infrastructure, local production capacity, sales and services; 2. insufficient consumer awareness; 3. insufficient investment in new markets and new products; 4. lack of consumer credit; . Prospects for the PV market in the next five years In 2010, the global revenue of the PV industry increased significantly. At the same time, PV companies have successfully raised more than $10 billion in stocks and bonds over the past 12 months. In 2010, the top five PV market countries in the world were Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic, Japan and the United States, which accounted for 80% of the global demand. The top three PV market countries in the European region are Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic. In 2010, the growth of the Japanese and American markets was very rapid, with annual growth of 101% and 96% respectively. Overall, more than 100 countries contributed to the rapid growth of demand in the photovoltaic industry in 2010. Chart 2010 Global PV by region market share In the main markets of Europe, the photovoltaic industry is currently entering a stage of policy tightening, and the rate of subsidy reduction is far greater than the rate of cost reduction. In the next two years, when some important markets shrink, the major regions of the United States, Canada, China and Japan still have growth potential. China has a vast territory and complex geographical environment, especially in remote and desert areas such as Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan. It is rich in solar energy resources. It is one of the best choices to solve the problem of local electricity consumption by using solar photovoltaic products. . Beginning in 2010, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a document to significantly adjust the relevant policies of the “Golden Sun Demonstration Project and Solar Photovoltaic Building Application Demonstration Project”, involving equipment bidding, project adjustment, Subsidy standards, project integration, and other key links. In 2010, a new 272MW project was added. In addition, it announced the establishment of 13 photovoltaic power generation centralized application demonstration parks throughout the country, as a basis for promoting the application of China's photovoltaic industry. And publicly stated that the domestic application scale should not be less than 1000MW per year after 2012. Shangpu Consulting's investment in photovoltaic industry investment In the investment of photovoltaic industry, Shang Longxian, an analyst with Shangpu Consulting, believes that China, as the fastest-growing economy in the world, is only in the downstream level of the world in the field of photovoltaic power generation. During China's “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, China will build 100 new energy demonstration cities and further build grid-connected photovoltaic power stations to develop microgrid demonstration zones in areas with abundant solar energy resources such as the central and western regions of China. Promote the application of photovoltaic power generation in China. Shangpu Consulting has three suggestions for investment in the photovoltaic industry: 1. The price of raw materials for solar cells is high, and the supply of equipment is in short supply. Some domestic solar cell manufacturers complained to equipment companies that they could not deliver on time, which affected their expansion. The main reason is that the market is growing too fast. Many domestic equipment companies used to be small-scale operations and could not afford high-speed growth. With the advent of the financial crisis, it has had a great impact on domestic PV companies. Once the overseas market is balanced in production and sales, China's PV industry will face difficulties. The domestic PV industry will be reshuffled, so new projects must be cautious. 2. China's photovoltaic industry should strengthen cooperation in the future development. Enterprises should strive to reduce manufacturing costs through technological upgrading and scale expansion, but the government should also give policy support. 3. From the development status of the global photovoltaic industry, 90% of the photovoltaic industry is a policy market. At present, the photovoltaic industry is not completely a market economy, but also mainly government behavior. Once the overseas market is balanced in production and sales, no country will take it. To pay for subsidies to foreign companies, for China's photovoltaic industry, it is necessary to develop its own market after 2010.   S&P Consulting, known as “Beijing Shangpu Information Consulting Co., Ltd.”, is a domestic business plan expert (Business Plan Expert) dedicated to “providing professional solutions for corporate strategic decision-making”. The research institute was established in 1999 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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