In the past 30 years, China has grown at an average rate of more than 9% per year. From the perspective of economic aggregates, China’s coming posture has left the former economic powers one by one and finally entered the top three.
In 2009, the financial crisis that has not happened in a hundred years once again pushed China to the center of the stage. When many countries' economies are in negative growth, China relies on the 4 trillion economic stimulus plan supported by the strong government's financial resources to allow China to maintain a GDP of around 8%. Speed ​​up and stand out from the world.
Therefore, optimists expect that it is entirely possible for China's economy to achieve "guarantee eight" this year. In the face of Japan's worst post-war economic data and sustained economic recession, China has replaced Japan and stabilized its economic aggregate second. It is entirely possible.
Professor Li Daokui, director of the China and World Economic Research Center of Tsinghua University, is such an optimist. On May 21, he said in an interview with the reporter of China Times: "So far, the pattern of the decline in the growth rate of China's real economy has basically ended. The Chinese economy can already say that it has entered a channel of rising growth rate this year. At the end of the year, the size of China’s economy will exceed that of Japan."
Li Daokui believes that the Chinese economy has gone out of the doldrums and the growth rate is rising, while the Japanese economy has not emerged from the recession. On this basis, he expects that China's gross domestic product (GDP) may surpass Japan in the end of this year and become the world's second largest economy.
However, some experts do not agree with this. Liu Junhong, a researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that the Japanese economy has begun to improve since March and is not as pessimistic as imagined. The total economic output of China and Japan still has a gap of about 13%. If the Japanese economy starts to improve in the second quarter, instead of maintaining a negative growth rate of about 15% per annum, there may be a certain gap in the total economic volume at the end of the year.
Fastest growth vs. maximum decline
A number of economic statistics in Japan were released on May 20, and this day became the worst day for the Japanese economy after World War II.
Among the worst recorded data, the most striking is the first quarter gross domestic product. After adjusting for seasonal factors and eliminating price changes, Japan’s real GDP in the first quarter fell by 4.0% from the previous quarter, and the annual conversion rate fell by 15.2%. In the fourth quarter of last year, Japan’s “worst post-war economic record†was refreshed, and Japan is now setting the biggest post-war decline.
If the first quarter of 2009 is converted into an annual rate of GDP decline, the horizontal comparison: the United States negative 6.1%, the euro zone 16 countries average about 10%, Germany negative 14.4%, Japan due to negative 15.2% on the top of the developed countries negative economic growth.
In addition, in the first quarter of Japan, the nominal GDP decline in a single quarter, the decline in single-quarter exports, and the decline in equipment investment in a single quarter, many important economic data hit the worst post-war decline. The worst record of many Japanese data has also become an important basis for China's total economic output over Japan.
Li Daokui believes that the economic situation of the whole world is that the United States is better than Europe, Europe is better than Japan, and the Chinese economy maintains the highest growth rate in the world. Li Daokui said that there is no doubt that China will succeed in "guaranteeing eight" this year. By the end of this year, the size of China's economy may exceed that of Japan.
Liu Junhong believes that although Japan's economic data is relatively ugly in the first quarter, since March and April, Japan's personal investment has begun to increase, corporate inventory adjustment has basically ended, and exports have also recovered, which indicates that the Japanese economy has improved.
If we only calculate from the existing data, the total amount of China's economy does have the possibility of surpassing Japan. According to estimates by relevant US agencies, Japan’s GDP this year is about 4.84 trillion US dollars. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China’s GDP in 2008 was 30.067 trillion yuan, a contract of 4.33 trillion US dollars, between China and Japan. The gap is only less than 13%.
In addition, Japan’s GDP fell by 12.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, the biggest decline in 30 years. It is widely predicted that its GDP will grow at least 3% negative this year. Therefore, if China succeeds in maintaining an increase of more than 8%, there is a possibility of surpassing Japan during the year.
Also look at the exchange rate "face"
Analysts also pointed out that changes in the yen's exchange rate will also be a major factor in whether China's economy will surpass Japan this year.
In 2008, Japan’s GDP in US dollars was US$4.84 trillion, a nominal increase of 11.5%. This was mainly due to the significant appreciation of the yen against the US dollar in the last few months of the second half of last year, which raised Japan’s nominal GDP in dollar terms. In 2008, the actual growth rate of Japan's GDP was only 0.7%, close to zero growth.
Since entering 2009, the yen has been weak due to low interest rates. It has fallen below the 100 yen to 1 dollar mark, while the yuan has risen steadily. If the yen continues to fall in the future, China's GDP will surpass Japan's possibility. However, the yen has recently regained its upward momentum and returned to the one-dollar exchange rate of 94 yen.
Liu Junhong, who is optimistic about the Japanese economy, also said that considering the exchange rate factor, the total economic output of China and Japan may be very close at the end of the year. However, he also stressed that China must achieve more rapid development by taking more domestic and effective measures to maintain the momentum of economic development.
Zhao Xumei, director of the Asian Economic Research Office of the Institute of International Economics of the University of International Business and Economics, analyzed the longer term. She told reporters that the decline of the Japanese economy actually began in the 1990s. Although the Japanese economy showed signs of recovery between 2002 and 2003, it did not change the momentum of economic development. China has always been at a high-speed development stage. From the perspective of development momentum, China is definitely better than Japan.