For the entire photovoltaic industry, 2011 is a year that every PV person can remember, and it is also a year of photovoltaic emotions mixed with the various emotions of PV people. Because of this year, the photovoltaic industry has gone through various legends, and has tasted all kinds of surprises, panic, and surprises.
In the first and second quarters of 2011, the domestic PV industry continued its enthusiasm for the previous year, and the investment rhythm is still in the midst of excitement. The increase in production and expansion is still the hottest keyword in the photovoltaic industry, and in the third and fourth quarters, everything It seems that there has been a sharp reversal in an instant. With the demise of the listed companies and the changing environment in the domestic and international markets, the glamorous photovoltaic industry suddenly fell into disappointment. In the upstream market, the international polysilicon price continued to fall, which directly forced the production cost, which caused the domestic polysilicon industry to be fatally hit. The domestic polysilicon industry was almost completely discontinued, and the enterprises were free from the fate of the industry. At the same time, the downstream market was not good, the international market. The unpredictable changes, the uncertainty of the subsidy policies of various countries, and the “double-reverse†investigations faced by domestic PV enterprises collectively have severely affected the development of photovoltaic enterprises, and domestic enterprises have slowed down or stagnated the pace of development. The madness of the first half of the year and the fierceness of the second half of the year have made the still-small photovoltaic industry experience the joy and suffering of growth. Although the current photovoltaic market is still lingering over the lingering haze, the spread of pessimism in the industry seems to have lost this direction of the sunrise industry, but as Shi Zhengrong said, the photovoltaic industry is in a temporary trough, the photovoltaic industry will not In the case of bankruptcy, the future photovoltaic industry will surely ushered in the light after experiencing pains and persistence.
1. A province added 78 new homes in half a year. The investment in private enterprises surged to PV. Due to the gradual compression of the traditional domestic manufacturing profit margin and the high gross profit margin of the photovoltaic industry, Zhejiang Province, which has strong private capital, has once again witnessed a new round of PV expansion. The gross profit margin of PV components can often reach 15%-35%. Even if some technologies are not well-off, the gross profit margin can still reach 8%-10%. This is for Zhejiang with many gross margins around 5%. Manufacturing companies are extremely attractive. According to a group of data from Zhejiang Solar Energy Industry Association, there are 78 Zhejiang enterprises entering the PV industry within half a year, and many of them were established in September 2010, and 65% of them have cut into the production of components. Almost all of the new members are small-scale investments. The investment amount of no one has reached 800 million yuan, and the investment amount of 800 million yuan is the basic amount of capital invested in a polysilicon production line with a capacity of 1,000 tons.
Comment Although PV experienced the waterloo-like lessons of polysilicon in 2008, it still failed to block the pace of new entrants. Many enterprises have higher cost prices than European market prices, and they are caught in the dilemma of “not putting into production and losing money firstâ€. In the emerging market of photovoltaics, the development is only enough money, but also the timing of entry.
2, ingot casting method to produce single crystal, polysilicon process has made a major breakthrough in the polysilicon process route to achieve a major breakthrough, the monocrystalline silicon process route has gradually become the mainstream technology route selected by polysilicon enterprises. Compared with both single crystal silicon and polycrystalline silicon, the conversion rate of single crystal silicon makes it difficult to catch up with polycrystalline silicon, and the size of polycrystalline silicon ingots also makes monocrystalline silicon unattainable. According to calculations, the process cost of straight-drawing single crystal is about 160 yuan per kilogram, and the cost of polycrystalline silicon ingot processing is about 60-65 yuan per kilogram. From the comparison of quality, the conversion rate of straight-drawing single crystal can reach 18.5%. In the range of 14%-17%; the so-called single crystal technology is to use the polycrystalline silicon ingot method to produce a product route close to the single crystal conversion rate. The quasi-monocrystalline silicon products produced by the new ingot technology not only have a conversion ratio comparable to that of single crystal silicon, but also can be mass-produced.
Comments photovoltaic market since the start of single crystal silicon and polycrystalline silicon by virtue of their respective strengths in the market share equal shares, to maintain the coexistence of the situation, but with the technological breakthroughs class crystal products, market structure will face decomposition in the future, a single class Crystal product technology has become a mainstream technology in the polysilicon industry, and will become the industry's choice. There is no doubt that technological innovation is always the main theme of the photovoltaic industry.
3, various provinces and cities have deployed 'photovoltaic industrial parks everywhere . Nearly half of the 360 ​​cities in the country have set their sights on the photovoltaic industry, and proposed the goal of building a 100 billion-level photovoltaic industrial park. The photovoltaic industry parks everywhere have blossomed. Under the influence of regional policies and resources, China has initially formed a new energy industry cluster with the Bohai Sea, the Yangtze River Delta, the Southwest, and the Northwest as the core. In the future, China's new energy industry will continue to gather in areas of policy and resource advantages. Domestic large-scale new energy equipment manufacturing will shift to market terminals, and R&D and sales will be concentrated in dense areas of capital and talent.
Comments It is estimated that the construction of the industrial park on the one hand can increase local taxes, on the other hand can reduce manufacturing costs between enterprises, reduce production costs. However, it should be noted that regardless of whether the park chooses a company or a company chooses a park, it must also consider the constraints of resources and technology, and avoid the homogenization of low-capacity labor and people.
4. 10GW in 2015 and 50GW in 2020, the PV target is constantly updated. Foreign media and domestic media have released news that the future domestic PV development target is expected to double, showing the heat of the domestic PV target forecast and the revision of the target. . In the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†new energy industry plan, the original PV installed capacity in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†(2011-2015) and “Thirteen-Five†(2016-2020) targets 5 GW and 20 JI respectively. With the speculation that “the Energy Bureau and the National Development and Reform Commission are proposing some new targets for renewable energy development planningâ€, China’s “12th Five-Year†PV target is updated to 10GW, and the total installed capacity of PV in 2020 is 50GW. SEMI has released the “2011 China PV Industry Development Report†to the world. It is more daring to suggest that China's PV installations in 2020 and 2030 should reach 60GW and 270GW respectively. At the end of August, "Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan for Solar Photovoltaic Industry" (draft for comments). After being published for the first time by the media, the response was enthusiastic. After that, the whole picture of the "opinion draft" was gradually unveiled. The "Planning" has set a grand quantitative target: By 2015, China's photovoltaic industry will maintain steady and rapid growth, and polysilicon, solar cells and other products will adapt to the domestic PV power generation capacity to reach 10GW, meeting the development needs of the international market. Focus on supporting backbone photovoltaic enterprises to become stronger and bigger, by 2015: 1-2 50,000-ton polysilicon enterprises, 2-4 10,000-ton polysilicon enterprises; 1-2 5GW-class solar cell companies, 8-10 Jiwa-class solar cell enterprises; 3-4 photovoltaic special equipment enterprises with annual sales income of over 1 billion yuan. We will cultivate 1-2 PV companies with an annual sales income of over 100 billion yuan, and 3-5 PV companies with an annual sales income of over 50 billion yuan. The industry has created 1 million jobs.
Comment No matter in the new energy field or in the entire energy field, the share of the PV market cannot match its strategic position. The call to raise the PV target has been popular in the industry. The continuous updating of China's PV installation targets shows that the country's future plans for renewable energy, especially the photovoltaic industry, may be even bigger, and a clear signal for the development of the photovoltaic industry at the government level, the launch of the domestic PV application market There is no doubt that the arrow is on the string and has to be sent. The "goal" in the "12th Five-Year Development Plan for Solar Photovoltaic Industry" (draft for comment) is very exciting. It also shows that “shuffling†is an industry consensus. The government has also given default to this. The country’s support has gradually increased, and the photovoltaic industry is expected to further expand and strengthen. 5. The “Plastic Industry Access Report†was released, and the restructuring of the polysilicon industry strengthened the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China to issue notices to the provinces and cities, requesting the verification of the materials approved by the applicants, and the results will be reviewed before July 15. And materials submitted to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. According to the Notice, local industrial and information administration departments are responsible for accepting applications for polysilicon enterprise access announcements in the region, and submitting verification opinions and reporting materials. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will organize experts and entrust relevant testing institutions to review and review the application materials, and then publish the list of polysilicon enterprises that meet the entry conditions in the form of announcements with the relevant ministries.
Comments insiders believe that this is an important signal that the polysilicon project approval will be opened, indicating that the polysilicon industry will face restructuring and create conditions for the domestic PV application market.
6. The Qinghai 930 project was approved quickly. The provinces closely watched the “Qinghai sampleâ€. Qinghai Province is planning to subsidize 800 megawatts of photovoltaic projects this year and subsidize the power grids connected to the grid before September 30 at a price of 1.15 yuan/kWh. Some experts predict that it is difficult to have subsidies higher than this price in the future. Since then, the National Development and Reform Commission officially approved the Qinghai 930 project at an unconventional speed, and extended the construction period to the end of the year. This has gradually illuminated the “green light†for the construction of large-scale photovoltaic grid-connected projects in various provinces.
Comments Qinghai is a province with underdeveloped domestic economy. The local government tries to activate the local solar photovoltaic industry through the local government's strong subsidy for PV feed-in tariffs. Instead of passively waiting for the country to introduce a unified PV feed-in tariff, this idea is stronger. The feasibility of this has important reference significance for other provinces and cities in China, especially the western provinces and cities. This subsidy, known as the “Qinghai Sampleâ€, will not only provide effective data for the development of photovoltaic reference in the provinces, but also play a role in the domestic PV application market, which is always in a slow start state.
7. Important milestones in the photovoltaic industry, benchmarking on-grid tariffs on August 1, the National Development and Reform Commission website announced its "Notice on Improving the On-grid Price of Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation" signed on July 24, the notice stipulates that July 1, 2011 The solar photovoltaic power generation project approved for construction, completed on December 31, 2011 and not yet approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, the on-grid price was uniformly approved at 1.15 yuan per kWh. Solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved on or after July 1, 2011, and solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved before July 1, 2011 but not yet completed and put into operation as of December 31, 2011, except for Tibet, still implement 1.15 kWh per kWh. In addition to the on-grid tariff of the yuan, the on-grid tariffs of the remaining provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) are executed at RMB 1 per kWh.
Comments Photovoltaic industry is known as "policy to promote the market", although the industry has been calling on the government to introduce PV on-grid price as soon as possible, but the document issued on August 1 gave the photovoltaic industry a big surprise, so that the long-awaited industry In case of rain. Although there are all kinds of imperfections, doubts and even loopholes behind this policy. However, it has brought us the dawn of the opening of the Chinese PV market. At the same time, it also has a major impact on the adjustment of China's PV business strategy. Domestic PV has taken the most critical step and become the most important milestone for China's PV market this year.
8. Jingke is trapped in the “pollution gateâ€. The photovoltaic industry is still recognized. It will take time at 7:30 pm on September 15th. More than 500 people gathered in front of Zhejiang Jingke Energy Company to discuss the environmental pollution problem. . At 8:30 pm on September 16, hundreds of people gathered in front of Jingke Energy. At the end of September, Jingke completely stopped production of 1.2GW battery production line. In mid-October, after obtaining approval from the local government and a designated group of experts to determine whether the remediation work after the fluorochemical leakage accident met the environmental protection requirements, Jinko Solar China Haining solar cell production plant finally resumed production.
Commenting on this incident has become the focus of the most attention since the third quarter, and it further shows that photovoltaic companies that advocate green concepts are more likely to cause public outrage once they have problems in environmental protection. It will take time for China's PV industry to change the status quo of “first-class enterprises, second-rate management, and third-rate environmental awarenessâ€.
9. Central enterprises and private enterprises joined forces to build a photovoltaic power plant aircraft carrier project. On November 17, the biggest news of the photovoltaic industry came from GCL-Polyxin Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as GCL-Poly) and China Guangdong Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. The Group's China Guangdong Nuclear Power Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as China Guangdong Nuclear Power Co., Ltd.) jointly developed a cooperation framework agreement for a photovoltaic power plant project with a total installed capacity of 1 GW in Datong City, Shanxi Province.
Comments with respect to the 2011 national total installed capacity of PV 1-2GW only the total size of the two giants of cooperation can be described as generous. Just as a few years ago, GCL-Poly established a 20-megawatt photovoltaic power station in Xuzhou as the largest photovoltaic power station in Asia at the time. It can be predicted that the Datong 1GW project signed by the two giants will also become a new round of development of China's photovoltaic industry. The benchmark will not only open the way for large-scale intensive development and efficient use of clean energy, but also provide a strong green driving force for sustainable economic and social development.
10. The tide of PV price cuts has hit, and the “double-reverse†investigation has made it worse . Most PV companies are mired in the industry's adjustment quagmire. When the price of components is sold at the price of cabbage, the US Department of Commerce has filed a “double-reverse†investigation report. It has also poured more cold water into the industry and enterprises. Internal and external difficulties, few markets, prices continue to fall, and the inventory of various links in the industrial chain has increased substantially. After this series of changes, the photovoltaic industry has fallen into the current dilemma, and the downturn is still in an infinite state.
Comments For the "double-reverse" survey, China's 16 PV companies have chosen to stand in the unified trench, and we have seen the positive side of Chinese PV companies. The four major PV giants face the so-called survey. Under the general environment of international trade disputes, Chinese PV companies dare to make their own voices and learn to defend their rights and interests with determination and law. Let us see that Chinese PV companies are seeking a dignified development path.
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