Abstract The Chinese economy is facing the pressure and challenge of new and old exchanges. At a time when the old momentum of economic growth is declining and the new impetus has not yet become a dominant force, there are concerns that the Chinese economy will “hard landing†or the momentum will fade. Yesterday, accepting the road...
The Chinese economy is facing the pressure and challenge of new and old exchanges. At a time when the old momentum of economic growth is declining and the new impetus has not yet become a dominant force, there are concerns that the Chinese economy will “hard landing†or the momentum will fade.
Yesterday, in an interview with Reuters, President Xi Jinping emphasized that China’s economy grew by 7% in the first half of this year, in line with the full-year growth target and the fastest growing among the world’s major economies. It is normal for a country to grow its economy. It is normal to be fast and slow. It cannot be said that it can only accelerate and cannot slow down. This is not in line with economic laws.
Today, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce third-quarter GDP, which is once again the focus of attention. The "First Financial Daily" combed the reports of ten major brokers and the multi-party forecast found that the view that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter was less than 7% was over 90%, and most of the forecasts were in the range of 6.7% to 6.9%.
An official economic researcher told this newspaper that from the data released previously, the “breaking 7†of GDP in the third quarter is almost a foregone conclusion. He believes that the current domestic and foreign demand continues to be weak, favorable factors such as the recovery of RMB credit and the increase in supply are being devalued. In the context of complex contradictions, this data is not pessimistic, and from the breakdown of the data, the effectiveness of China's economic transformation. More and more.
However, the current domestic and international economic situation is still complicated and the global economic situation is generally weak, and China cannot be immune to it. Last Friday's latest data released by the central bank showed that the decline in foreign exchange holdings of financial institutions in September hit a record-breaking decline in the past month, and the central bank's foreign exchange holdings have also fallen for eight consecutive months.
The market generally believes that China's foreign exchange holdings may still experience negative growth in the coming months. The reduction in foreign exchange holdings and the hidden concerns of financial data in September have increased the market's expectations for the central bank's RRR cut.
When Premier Li Keqiang hosted a financial enterprise symposium on the 16th, he stressed that while maintaining macroeconomic policy stability, it should guide financial institutions to focus on stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and benefiting people's livelihood and innovative service methods, effectively solving financing difficulties and financing, and increasing Support for the real economy. It is necessary to maintain a reasonable liquidity and a moderate increase in the total amount of credit, increase the intensity of directional regulation, support key areas, weak links and small and micro enterprises, and reduce service charges.
New changes in economic structure
For the problem at the digital level, there is almost a consensus consensus across the board. The spokesman of the Bureau of Statistics, Sheng Laiyun, recently stated that the GDP growth rate of not less than 6.5% will be regarded as “about 7%â€.
For the pessimistic voice of the external sing, an official of the statistical system told the newspaper that the speed reduction is a fact, but that the stall is a bit "devious." "In the absence of significant changes and upgrades in economic momentum, the economic slowdown after years of rapid growth is inevitable. We have not experienced a cliff-type fall, and more is a medium- and long-term transition crisis." The official said, biting The structural transformation of housing will remain the focus of policy development in the next phase.
Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that the decline in investment growth is the main reason for the current downward pressure on the economy. From the perspective of the three major demands, the trade surplus has expanded, consumption growth has stabilized, and capital formation has slowed significantly. From the perspective of the three industries, the contribution of the secondary industry to economic growth will further decline, and the new driving force for economic growth needs to be strengthened.
After a year or two of transition and adaptation, the market's tolerance and rational understanding of China's economic growth slowdown is also increasing. At the upcoming Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the CPC Central Committee will discuss the 13th Five-Year Plan. According to the statistics of the reporters, in the forecast of mainstream institutions and scholars, the 6.5% “13th Five-Year†growth target is a more mainstream figure.
Not only that, but the “supreme†status of GDP in many economic data is also being weakened. In the past two years, while the central government has advocated the gradual dilution of GDP, it has also shown great concern for indicators such as the employment rate and the number of new enterprises registered. From a global perspective, these data are more mainstream and have important reference value for the development of the country's comprehensive strength.
The industry insiders contacted by the "First Financial Daily" reporter believes that despite the pressure of "guarantee 7", they are still optimistic.
From the perspective of increasing the differentiation between new and old industries, many viewpoints suggest that many emerging industries have not calculated their GDP contribution values, resulting in an underestimation of China's GDP. Some scholars said that China's tertiary industry is developing rapidly. Its small scale and large number of enterprises bring certain difficulties to sampling. The economic activities generated by a large number of service industries, individual small traders, and consumption in rural areas may not be included in GDP.
China's GDP accounting problem has always been the focus of international public opinion. In the first half of this year, there were voices questioning that GDP accounting was too high. Since then, the government has refuted this statement from many angles. Interestingly, this year, there are also many voices that believe that China's GDP is underestimated.
For example, recently, some media quoted Ye Xiang, chief economist of Guoyuan Securities (Hong Kong), as saying that China's economic structure has been transformed, but the statistical methods are still in the old cycle, resulting in data that does not reflect real economic growth.
Ye Xiang believes that in the last cycle, due to the large proportion of mining, smelting and heavy chemical industry, if the statistical methods reflect the economic growth more realistically, the above-mentioned industries account for the choice of sampling and the distribution of weights. The proportion must be large. However, the tertiary industry has grown rapidly in the past few years. The service industry companies are small in scale and large in number. If the past statistical methods are fully used, the real economic growth will be underestimated.
An official who asked not to be named told this newspaper that the statistical bureau sampled a complex and comprehensive extraction and update process, but one thing is certain that the internal industrial structure and weight of GDP are undergoing dramatic changes. He revealed that from this year's data, the trend of differentiation between new and old industries is becoming more and more obvious.
Among them, the change of industrial structure is the most macroscopic manifestation. The official website of the National Bureau of Statistics recently published an article entitled "New Normal New Strategy and New Development - The Achievements of China's Economic and Social Development during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period". The article pointed out that the service industry has become China's largest industry. In the first half of 2015, the proportion of service industry in GDP rose to 49.5%. The service industry has surpassed industry to become the first pillar of economic growth.
Due to this change, some traditional indicators also show lag. For example, the Secretary-General of the National Development and Reform Commission and the spokesperson Li Pumin recently responded to the question “The first three quarters of inconsistent power consumption and GDP growthâ€, saying that the inconsistency is mainly caused by the difference between the electricity structure and the economic structure.
Li Pumin said that the changes in electricity growth rate and GDP growth rate in the past few years were basically synchronized, and the correlation coefficient was around 0.74. During the economic upswing, the growth rate of electricity consumption is obviously faster than the growth rate of GDP; during the economic downturn, the growth rate of electricity consumption is significantly lower than the growth rate of GDP.
In the past ten years, the proportion of China's primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry and residential electricity consumption averaged 2:74:12:12, but primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry and residents' living accounted for GDP. The average weight is 10:46:44:0, and the difference between the two is large.
"The change in economic structure is a precursor to the change of China's economic kinetic energy, which means that the analysis of China's economy needs a new perspective and vision." The aforementioned officials said that the current policy objective is to return the traditional industry to the normal development speed and build new industries. The development of high speed fast lanes.
Financial data mixed
However, some experts said that the next step is that China's economic development environment is becoming more complicated. The unstable and uncertain factors affecting the smooth operation of the economy at home and abroad have increased, and the downward pressure on the economy may continue for some time.
In fact, from the financial data of the first three quarters that have been announced, it is also mixed, and monetary policy still faces many challenges.
On October 15, the financial statistics released by the central bank showed that the new credit in September was 1.05 trillion yuan, and the scale of social financing rose to 1.35 trillion yuan, rising for three consecutive months. The year-on-year growth rate of broad money (M2) fell slightly to 13.1%, and the narrow money (M1) year-on-year growth rate rose to 11.4%, the highest value since May 2013.
Yang Chi, head of the strategy department of Huaxia Bank Development Research Department, said to the reporter that on the one hand, the broad money (M2) growth rate reached 13.1%, and the RMB loan increased by 9.90 trillion yuan. The previous period of interest rate cuts and adjustment of deposits and loans. The “micro-stimulus†measures such as caliber have released more liquidity, and the fine-tuning of monetary policy has begun to bear fruit.
On the other hand, Yang Chi said that from the perspective of the scale of social financing, the situation is not optimistic, the proportion of RMB loans does not fall, and credit financing is still the main channel to support the real economy. This is a pause in the IPO of the stock market this year, and the financing environment is not ideal. Relatedly, it also has a certain relationship with the supervision of the inter-bank business, which leads to a significant decline in trust loans and the adjustment of the entrusted loan statistics. Although RMB loans increased by 2.34 trillion yuan year-on-year, it is still difficult to compensate for the decline in financing scale caused by the weak growth of trusts, stock markets and bank acceptance bills.
In fact, the interbank lending and pledge repo rates in the interbank market were significantly lower than the same period last year, indicating that the overall liquidity of the banking system was sufficient.
"So it seems that the problem of the channel of the transfer of funds to the real economy is still unbroken." Yang Chi said that although the overall liquidity of the banking system is sufficient, the credit demand of the real economy is weak, and banks lack the quality and security of lending objects. The phenomenon of “asset allocation shortage†is more obvious.
From the perspective of nominal interest rates, the benchmark interest rates for deposits and loans have fallen to their lowest level in 10 years. However, considering that the CPI growth rate has returned to the “1st eraâ€, the PPI has been in a downturn for a long time, and the price level is at a low level. The actual interest rate level is still at a relatively high level, making the real debt burden of enterprises still heavy.
The central bank’s RRR cut is expected to increase
“In September, the foreign exchange holdings of financial institutions saw another biggest decline in a single month. Under the background of the downward pressure of China’s economy, the market’s expectation of RMB depreciation is still in progress, leading to capital outflows.†Liu Jian, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center The First Financial Daily reporter said that the central bank’s foreign exchange accounted for the smallest decline in three months, indicating that China’s capital outflow pressure has eased, indicating that the central bank’s efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and strengthen macro-prudential management of forward-sales sales are effective. Stabilized market expectations.
Xie Yaxuan, head of macro research at China Merchants Securities Research and Development Center, believes that the trend of the central bank's foreign exchange holdings is consistent with the current international capital flow situation, and is also consistent with the scale measured by the central bank's foreign exchange reserve balance changes. This also shows that the central bank has played a role in actively countering the foreign exchange market and strengthening counter-cyclical macro-prudential measures such as deposits for long-term foreign exchange purchases, effectively stabilizing expectations.
The decline in foreign exchange holdings, the hidden financial data in September increased the market's expectations for the central bank's RRR cut.
"Even if the central bank's foreign exchange accounted for a negative growth scale, the expectation of lowering the deposit reserve ratio is also rising. In the short term, there is no reversal of the negative growth of foreign exchange holdings." Yan Ling, an analyst at China Merchants Securities Research Department, The Caijing Daily reporter predicted that, in conjunction with the September credit data, the steady growth policy is still exerting force. In line with the improvement of the funds in place, the NDRC has successively approved a series of investment projects, which means that the economic situation in the fourth quarter is expected to improve compared with the third quarter.
"The deposit and loan interest rates still have a certain downward adjustment. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, according to changes in the economic situation and liquidity, there will be a policy of lowering interest rates and lowering the quota." Yang Chi predicts that SLF, PSL, directional RRR reduction, and "Micro-stimulus" means such as loans will become the main tone of monetary policy.
"We predict that there will be a RRR cut, mainly because we believe that we need to cope with the tightening effect of monetary policy brought about by the continued decline in foreign exchange holdings in the future." Zhang Jun, head of macroeconomic research at Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, told this reporter that foreign exchange accounts for The decline has led to a decline in the base currency, and the decline in M2 growth in September is largely a manifestation of the tightening effect caused by the decline in foreign exchange holdings. Therefore, in addition to considering the increase in the base money supply, such as credit pledge refinancing, raising the currency multiplier by RRR is another way of hedging.
Zhang Jun believes that the central bank may cut interest rates once in the fourth quarter. As the economy stabilizes and the real economy is more active, the speed of money circulation will also improve, which will help further improve the liquidity environment. In addition, with the cooperation of innovative policy instruments such as credit asset pledge refinancing, there is no need for further downgrades in the real economy itself.
Not long ago, the central bank announced the expansion of the selection of qualified pledges for the credit asset pledge refinancing pilot. This is seen by the market as another favorable channel for the central bank to open up the base currency.
LED Color String Light
Led Color String Light,Twinkly Led String Light,Colorful Led String Lights,Led String Lights Outdoor
Tianjin Jinji Optoelectronic Technology Co., Ltd. , https://www.tjjjgd.com