The proportion of nuclear power in various countries in China is generally lower than the cost of coal in China

“The current situation is very serious.” On the evening of March 18, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan described nuclear leakage. At the same time, Japan’s nuclear monitoring agency has raised the gravity of the nuclear accident to Level 5, which is the same severity as the nuclear accident in San Francisco in 1979. Analysts inside the industry have analyzed that if the nuclear leakage accident in Japan is irreversibly expanded, it may actually affect the development of nuclear power in many countries including China, and even the entire new energy development pattern.

The development of nuclear power has been postponed. Some sources pointed out that the "New Energy Industry Development Plan" has been submitted to the State Council. According to the plan, it is expected that by 2020, China's new energy power generation capacity will be 290 million kilowatts, of which nuclear power will reach 70 million kilowatts.

"From the current situation, we can't judge what kind of impact the nuclear incident in Japan will have on China's nuclear strategy. It depends on the eventual evolution of this incident and the attitude of the entire international environment toward the development of nuclear power." Lin Boqiang, an energy economist, said in an interview with the “International Finance” reporter, but it is certain that the development of nuclear power will certainly be affected, and the original development goals may not be completed.

On March 16, the executive meeting of the State Council presided over by Premier Wen Jiabao emphasized that before approving nuclear safety plans, the suspension of approvals for nuclear power projects included projects for carrying out preparatory work.

"Japan's nuclear leak accident is a warning to China and will help China's nuclear power industry develop healthier and orderly. However, in the future, China's nuclear power plant construction will not stop there." Reporter: At present, China’s nuclear power uses three generations of nuclear technology from France, which is safer than the second-generation technology used in Japan. At present, China has already mastered the fourth-generation nuclear power technology.

“Wind Power” Welcome Opportunities “According to the plan, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China’s clean energy use rate should reach 15%. If the expansion target of nuclear energy cannot be completed on time, other clean energy sources will follow the trend and increase the proportion.” Lin Boqiang pointed out The nuclear leakage incident in Japan is undoubtedly an opportunity for other new energy sources.

Some analysts pointed out that due to the earthquake, Japan's photovoltaic companies have stopped production, and the power shortage caused by the earthquake will also make it impossible for these manufacturers to resume production in a short time. By then, most of these lost orders will turn to China.

A number of brokerages reported that the nuclear power plant explosion will encourage future countries to increase their solar energy policies when considering clean energy generation. The photovoltaic market will have a short-term market with a wave of long-term interest in the photovoltaic industry. At the same time, many PV companies are ready to start expanding their production capacity and take this nuclear leakage as an opportunity for development. It is understood that recently, JA Solar has announced that it will establish a 3GW photovoltaic production facility in Anhui; Trina Solar disclosed that it plans to increase the production capacity of photovoltaic cells and modules from 1.2GW last year to 1.9GW by the end of this year.

“But enterprises should not blindly expand, and go all the way, we must grasp the rhythm and see the development of things.” Lin Boqiang stressed.

The new energy structure is entering the transformation period. "Perhaps in the short term, the fact that traditional energy is dominant will not change, but in the long term, new energy will have more room for development. Among the new energy sources, the most promising is solar energy, although it is There are certain restrictions on the use of the region, but its power generation form is most in line with the standard of clean energy. Although wind power is also good, the cost of early-stage investment needs to be high.” Song Liang pointed out that in the future, China's new energy industry will focus on the development of the sun. The main solar energy, including wind, tide, water, and nuclear power, should be adapted to local conditions and coordinated development.

However, he also stated that there are many problems that need to be overcome to truly use solar energy. “First, we need to improve the supporting infrastructure, such as the establishment of a smart grid to achieve grid-connected photovoltaics. Second, to reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation, it is expected that the cost of photovoltaic power generation will be reduced to The cost of thermal power is quite comparable."

Lin Boqiang and Song Liangjun believe that the transformation of China's energy structure will accelerate during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, and new energy will become a new growth point for China’s economy in the future.