Some rational product market corrections in the chemical market

With the organic sector no longer leading the rise, last week (August 12-16) temporarily extinguished the fire, some products began to rationally callback. Analysts believe that the cost of the organic sector has been depleted, and that the new round of positive stimulus from domestic demand procurement and export will come in late September, but if the demand is weak, this round of market will not be optimistic.

According to the monitoring of prices of business clubs, last week, there were 19 kinds of commodities in the list of rising and falling prices of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and the top three commodities were ethylene glycol, phenol, and alcohol. In the past month, the leading position of organic products has been broken. Among the 19 products that have risen, organic and inorganic products have been distributed in a balanced manner, and the growth rate has generally narrowed compared with the previous week. Some organic products have started to make a rational callback due to excessive gains in the previous period. .

With the price increase of refineries at home and abroad in the past month, some products have been close to breaking the bottom line of downstream customers, and the reasons for cost shifting are no longer sufficient. Chemical industry analyst Zhang Ming believes that the price of organic chemical weight products such as styrene, n-butanol, octanol, and propylene fell last week, which means that organic plate costs are well spent.

It is understood that most of the current rising varieties are affected by the difference between the internal and external disk prices to move closer to the balance point. In addition, some products are constrained by the joint price action of manufacturers in the industry, and the real varieties that are pulled up by demand are rampant.

Currently, the demand intensity of various industrial chains is different. Hydrogen peroxide was driven by the large number of purchases in the printing and dyeing industry. The supply of the market was in short supply, and the prices continued upward trend since the beginning of June; while companies such as automobiles and air-conditioning refrigeration had purchased a large amount of refrigerants in the second quarter, the recent high temperatures were not digested. After the early inventory is completed, the refrigerant price is still falling.

Zhang Ming said that from the perspective of the cyclical laws of the petrochemical market, the overall upward trend of the chemical market in the third quarter will not change, but there must be multiple small shock cycles within the current cycle. International crude oil has fluctuated between US$103 and US$109 for two consecutive months. The cost support for organic chemical raw materials has already been consumed within a month. It is expected that the chemical sector will trend upwards in the weaker trend in late August, and a new round of favorable stimulus from domestic demand purchases and exports will come in late September.

It is worth mentioning that, as a petrochemical industry chain product that is closer to the terminal, the price of styrene butadiene rubber fell by 3.89% last week. Liu Xintian, director of the Commodity Commodities Research Center, believes that the current demand for terminals has not yet been brought up to the uptrend market. If demand cannot be recovered in time, this round of commodity market conditions will eventually rise to fatigue and eventually die prematurely.