Phosphorus is unusually strong in abundance

According to the previous yellow phosphorus market conditions, each year after entering the end of April, due to yellow phosphorus production areas in Yunnan, Guizhou and other places will soon enter the wet season, the output is expected to increase, the market price tends to gradually decline. However, since the beginning of this year to mid-May, the market price of yellow phosphorus has been abnormally strong, and has remained stable at 16,500 yuan (t price, the same below). The reason for this is due to the support of various factors such as the stability of downstream demand, changing power policies, and rising logistics costs.

Downstream demand tends to be stable According to industry analysts, after the international financial crisis, the atmosphere of impetuousness and speculation in the circulation sector has dimmed, and the direction of product direction has become a direct terminal trend. That is, the market is increasingly able to reflect actual demand conditions. From the relevant data, the market demand for yellow phosphorus and its downstream phosphate products has stabilized. In the overseas market, due to the fact that the national tariff policy does not encourage the export of large quantities of phosphorus products, in addition to the rapid rise of countries with phosphorus resources in the Middle East, if *** has already formed a production capacity of 150,000 tons/year of phosphate, the current annual production capacity of phosphate in Algeria has been Across the 250,000-ton mark, China's annual export of phosphate products has dropped from 600,000 tons in the early years to about 400,000 tons. In the domestic market, phosphate products are mainly used in ceramics, electroplating, and other fields. A few varieties have grown. For example, with the widening of the scope of use of food additives, food grade phosphates in meat products, aquatic products, dairy products, soy products, flour products In processing industries, there is a slight increase in the annual usage.

In addition, as the parent material of organophosphorus pesticides, yellow phosphorus consumes about 100,000 tons of yellow phosphorus each year due to the processing of pesticide intermediates. At present, the glyphosate industry, which has entered the doldrums with the international financial crisis, has gone through the peaks and troughs of the roller coaster and washed away false market components and restored the true relationship between supply and demand. According to production companies' forecasts, the price of glyphosate will be within the year. With some recovery, the demand for yellow phosphorus will remain stable and increase.

The price increase is expected to enhance yellow phosphorus is a high energy-consuming products, power consumption per unit of up to 15,000 kwh, power costs account for about 65% of the manufacturing cost of yellow phosphorus, apparently, this cost structure is very sensitive to rising electricity prices. The National Development and Reform Commission raised the on-grid tariffs of 16 provinces, municipalities and districts across the country on April 10, and raised the on-grid tariff by an average of 1.2 cents/kWh. Although the price adjustment only increased the on-grid tariffs of the thermal power companies, the terminal sales price did not link temporarily. However, companies in the industry generally believe that industrial power accounts for more than 70% of the total electricity consumption in the society, and the capacity of the power grid companies is limited. With the increase in on-grid tariffs, Adjustment of industrial electricity prices is only a matter of time. For this reason, with this expected increase in electricity prices, manufacturers are not in a hurry to ship yellow phosphorus stocks, and circulation is also optimistic about this price increase, and the willingness to sell is not strong, which makes the market supply stable, yellow phosphorus The price is strong.

At the same time, new policies for local electricity prices have also been introduced. In general, after the middle of May each year, Yunnan and Guizhou will implement the Fengshui electricity price, but in recent news, Guizhou has reported that the province will still implement this year or during the Fengshui period. Flat water price. How does the regional price gap affect the yellow phosphorus market? Sun Kai, general manager of Jiangsu Huanglong Chemical Co., Ltd., the country's largest yellow phosphorus dealer, told reporters: “If Yunnan, Guizhou, the two largest domestic producers of yellow phosphorus, implement different industrial electricity prices, in addition to enhancing the yellow phosphorus in Yunnan In addition to the dominant market position and weakening the market competitiveness of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou, there is also an important role to raise the overall bottom price of yellow phosphorus.” Sun Kai analysis believes that the two kinds of electricity prices will cause a difference of 1,500 yuan in the manufacturing cost of yellow phosphorus. With the support of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou, it is possible to effectively block the space for yellow phosphorus prices in the wet period.

Rapid increase in logistics costs Recently, data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed that China's logistics costs accounted for more than 18% of GDP. Similarly, yellow phosphorus is also plagued by high logistics costs. In recent years, due to a number of fire accidents in the process of railroad transportation of yellow phosphorus in barrels, Yunnan Railway no longer assumes the barrel yellow phosphorus transportation business since New Year's Day this year. It is still in a state of shutdown. Therefore, the export of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan will be converted into road transport, and with the gradual rise in domestic fuel prices, road transport prices have soared, rising logistics costs naturally raise the price of yellow phosphorus. It is understood that in order to restore the Yellow Phosphorus rail transport, the relevant agencies in Yunnan are negotiating. According to another rumor, the railway has requested that the thickness of the yellow phosphorus drum be increased from 1.2 mm to 1.4 mm, and that the load per car should be reduced from the original 48 to 50 tons to 40 tons. Once this situation is true and implemented, the logistics costs of yellow phosphorus will increase by nearly one hundred yuan. This is also one of the factors supporting the firmness of yellow phosphorus prices.

In addition, since the beginning of this year, phosphate ore has risen by more than RMB 30-50, and the consumption of 10 tons of phosphorus ore per 1 ton of yellow phosphorus has been calculated. The cost of its production will increase by 300-500 yuan. At the same time, labor costs have risen at a faster rate in recent years. However, due to the general under-employment of yellow phosphorus companies and their relatively small output, the unit product's ability to apportion wages and surcharges, etc., has decreased, which has a significant effect on pushing up manufacturing costs. From this we can see that the overall cost factor has risen in an all-round way, which has strengthened the supporting role of yellow phosphorus prices.