New energy oil after the nuclear crisis has been “overwhelmed” (1)

The Fukushima nuclear crisis has not been resolved, and the world energy pattern has officially changed.

On the 24th, Germany, the world's fourth-largest economy and a European power, announced that it would suspend the use of domestic nuclear reactors, and plans to formally and permanently abandon nuclear energy and invest funds to develop and utilize renewable energy. At present, Germany's nuclear power generation accounts for 23% of the country's total power generation, while renewable energy generation accounts for only 17%.

China Petroleum Ministry reactors may invest up to $200 billion in renewable energy.

Under the impact of the earthquake disaster, all nuclear power plants in Japan will be shut down. In addition, the Fukushima nuclear crisis will break out and Japan will lose nearly one-third of its electricity supply. Due to the damage of a large amount of nuclear power in Japan during the earthquake, post-disaster reconstruction and replacement of nuclear energy may increase demand for crude oil. Under such circumstances, the most realistic strategy is to increase the import of traditional energy sources in the future to make up for the gap in nuclear power.

After abandoning nuclear energy, renewable energy is far from water and thirst. The excessive dependence of world energy on oil and coal will become increasingly unbalanced. Where is the way out?

"Japan is currently the world's third-largest oil consumer after the United States and China. Japan's domestic traditional energy is scarce. The domestic production of oil, natural gas and coal is almost negligible. Only some crude oil near Hokkaido and 99% of other crude oil are available. Both need to be imported," said Zhu Xi, deputy director of the Information and Marketing Department of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association.

In fact, oil consumption accounts for 42.6% of Japan's primary energy consumption. If the demand for oil consumption in the reconstruction process increases, in the case of declining supply and rising demand, it will inevitably have an impact on international oil prices. At the same time, Libya’s military strikes will also put pressure on international crude oil prices.

On March 19, the multinational forces of France, Britain and the United States joined forces to start a military strike against Libya, which has caused its crude oil exports to be close to embarrassment. As the world's 12th largest oil producer and the largest oil producer in North Africa, Libya's normal daily oil production is 1.6 million barrels.

Tianxiang Investment Consulting Co., Ltd.'s energy analysis report pointed out that the political situation in the Arab countries led by Libya still continues to affect the nerves of the crude oil market. The short-term concerns about the interruption of crude oil supply in the short term are still difficult to dissipate. It is expected that oil prices may be in the future. It will remain firm during the week, and the pace of crude oil rise will not stop, and it is likely to usher in a new round of sustained rise.

On the 23rd, the price of light crude oil for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 78 cents to close at 105.75 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.7%, the highest closing price since September 26, 2008. It hit a price of $106.03 per barrel, the highest intraday price since March 7. In the past six trading days, New York crude oil futures prices have risen for five consecutive trading days.

Wu Hao, an analyst at CITIC Securities, believes that according to the IEA's global energy outlook for the next 25 years, global crude oil production may stabilize at 68-69 million barrels per day, and it will no longer reach the previous daily average of 70 million barrels. Peak production. Whether it is due to the reduction of capital expenditure during the financial crisis or the realization of the peak oil forecast, there is a strong rigidity in the decline in production.

At the same time, the bottleneck of supply actually determines the upward trend of crude oil prices; even if there is no supply shock, oil prices may be steadily in an upward trend; the emergence of supply shocks has more certainly strengthened the “peak oil”. The trend, from the supply, determines the upward trend in oil prices.

In a report released by JP Morgan Chase recently, the basic expectation for the average oil price in the second quarter is still $105 per barrel. What's more, it is also said that it is not possible to rule out that oil prices will exceed the peak reached in 2008 and hit a record high. Although the current international crude oil price has exceeded 100 US dollars per barrel, there is another voice for the future price trend of crude oil. Gao Shixian, director of the Energy Economics and Development Strategy Research Center of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told this reporter that the earthquake in Japan and the nuclear crisis will make it difficult for a long time in the future, which will also cause short-term oil prices and the international economy. Impact, however, it will not hinder the general trend of global economic recovery.

In the case of limited reserves of traditional energy such as oil and coal, the world is striving to find new and clean energy sources to replace the increasingly exhausted traditional energy sources.

The International Energy Agency's (IEA) study of international electricity demand from 2000 to 2030 shows that the average annual growth rate of total power generation from renewable energy will be the fastest, and the annual growth rate of non-water renewable energy generation will reach nearly 6 %.

During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the Chinese government will invest 4 trillion yuan to support the development of nine industries including aerospace technology, new energy, new materials, information technology, biology and pharmaceuticals, energy-saving technologies and environmental protection technologies. The industry generally believes that this indicates that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the development of the new energy industry will be supported by more fiscal, taxation and financial policies, and usher in a new opportunity to accelerate development.

Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, said, "China will achieve the goal of reducing the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption by 15% in 2020 and reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40%-50% compared with 2005. It is to develop renewable energy. Who can be the protagonist of new energy in the future, according to the time of development."

“At present, in the period 2020-2030, the development of hydropower is the first priority of renewable energy, followed by wind energy such as non-water renewable energy. According to the latest development plan, by 2015, the water energy will reach 300 million. More than one kilowatt, now nearly 200 million kilowatts, which means that the installed capacity of wind power during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period will reach more than 100 million kilowatts."

"In the long run, solar energy is the most important and the most enduring alternative energy source." Meng Xianyu emphasized that "by 2030-2040, when the first two have developed resource opportunities, they can only rely on solar energy. From energy In terms of development potential, solar energy will be the ultimate alternative energy source.” “In this process, nuclear energy cannot be ignored. Nuclear energy used to be the hope of energy independence in many countries, but unfortunately, this hope was shrouded in the Japanese nuclear crisis. A lingering shadow has given people a warning that if China wants to develop, it must develop it under the premise of ensuring safety."

Renewable energy has shown strong growth in power generation, heating, cooling and transportation fuels. According to the data, in the past 10 years, the grid-connected solar photovoltaic power generation capacity has increased by 60% annually, and has increased by 100 times since 2000. In the past five years, other renewable energy technologies have also shown a rapid growth trend. The installed capacity of solar water heaters has increased by an average of 19% annually.

In Hefei, Anhui, the new energy industry in Hefei New Station District mainly focuses on solar photovoltaics as the core industrial cluster. At the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the total output value of the new energy industry in the city will reach 200 billion yuan. In Liaoning Province, Jinzhou, in order to build the photovoltaic industry capital, the establishment of the photovoltaic industry bureau, for the establishment of such a special bureau for an industry, shows the government's emphasis on photovoltaics, new energy.

Meng Xianxuan also said that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the strategic adjustment of China's economic structure will take greater steps and move toward a broader field. The energy industry, which is an important foundation, will undoubtedly play a pivotal role. The rapid growth of current energy demand and the rapid increase of energy conservation and emission reduction targets are not only the dual pressures of economic and social development, but also a great impetus for the development of new energy.

Industry analysts pointed out that as the state's support for strategic emerging industries continues to expand, the wind power, photovoltaic, biomass and energy sectors, which are the core of new energy, will usher in greater development. The current transformation of the economic development mode, the development of a green economy, and the realization of low-carbon development have become the country's long-term strategic goals and measures.

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