He Yifan: the vents in the trough
How to deal with the cycle is a test of the strategic capabilities of large companies
The third quarter economic operation data did not come out with a reassuring curve, GDP growth rate of only 7.3%. In the third quarter of 2010, GDP grew by 10.4% year-on-year. Since 2011, the Chinese economy has faded into a halo and entered a state of continuous decline.
The real economy is in a more bleak autumn. The closing trend of department store retailing is spreading from south to north, not only because of the impact of e-commerce; Angang, the eldest son of the Republic’s steel industry, has lost more than 17.235 billion in three years. During the boom period, the steel industry has invested in many projects at home and abroad. Most of them are now a burden of rust; the largest civil construction ship company, Rongsheng Heavy Industry, has a debt ratio of 93% in the third quarter of this year; the HSBC Purchasing Managers Index is an important indicator of the real economy, and the data from China in October shows that the new The order index and the production index, which are the most relevant sub-indices related to the solid economic data such as industrial added value and power generation, both fell.
There is another set of data with completely different temperatures. In the first three quarters, the national movie box office revenue was 21.949 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%, and this has not yet entered the fourth quarter of the Lunar New Year war; since last year, the box office seems to have no direct connection with quality. For example, "The White Haired Witch Passes the Moon in the Moon", its god film index has reached at least 0.8 "Fuchun Mountain Map", and the premiere of three days and a half of the box office has easily broken 200 million; in early October, and several Friends who invest in mobile games chat, their numbers are in the tens of millions, note that this is discussing monthly sales. In the first three quarters of this year, the game industry only had a merger and acquisition amount of 32.39 billion. From 2012 to 2014, the mobile game market achieved a growth of 300%.
Of course, you can say that this is an era of entertainment to death, and the easy stuff is always on the air. However, in the sociological sense, the downturn in the “hard†industry is more likely to create a “soft†industry bubble. The real vocal film "The Light of New York" was born in 1929, when the first Oscars were held in Hollywood this year. The most prosperous American film industry in 1929, 1957, 1973, 1979, and 2000 was a period of economic downturn. Even Warner Bros., Universal, and Columbia Pictures were established during the recession. Japanese animation and games, Korean movies and other creative industries have also accumulated momentum that has swept the world on the ruins of the economy.
The simpler the entertainment, the more popular it is during the economic downturn. Between 1930 and 1934, the American Golf Club lost about 1 million members, and organizations such as high-end social clubs also declined. In the same period, the number of stamp collectors increased from 2 million to 9 million, and the country spent nearly $100 million on bridge training (including buying poker cards).
How to deal with the cycle is a test of the strategic capabilities of large companies. Tencent and Ali, the two Internet companies with the highest market capitalization in China, are using investment to incite and change the cultural and entertainment industry. As early as commercial real estate has not yet peaked, Wang Jianlin smelled uneasiness and invested heavily in culture. Today, the Wanda Cultural Empire has begun to take shape, and the current local governments have turned a blind eye to the developers who have turned from the enthusiasm to the developers.
There is no business in the world that can’t make a profit, and it’s possible to follow suit. In fact, the net sales of American entertainment and sports goods was $500 million in 1929, and fell to slightly more than $250 million in 1933. . However, if you choose the right direction, there will always be more than one cotton quilt, and vice versa will increase the risk factor. For example, in the food and beverage industry, Wahaha is a company that is very worthy of respect, but its investment in familiar battlefields often fails to touch the pulse. It entered the retail industry in a big way. Although the Wau Mall suffered a setback in Hangzhou, it still promoted commercial real estate projects in other second- and third-tier cities. Such a layout will inevitably cause a cold sweat to be held in the hands of the onlookers.
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