Global energy demand is expected to increase by 40% by 2030

According to Agence France-Presse reported on January 18, BP on Wednesday (18th) predicted that by the rapid economic and population growth of emerging economies, global energy demand will increase by nearly 40% by 2030.

The annual energy outlook report released by BP shows that the energy demand of the 34 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will slow down significantly, while the energy demand of other countries and regions in the world will increase rapidly.

BP said in the report, “Global energy demand is likely to increase by 39% by 2030, or by 1.6% annually. This increase is almost entirely from non-OECD member countries.”

"Energy consumption of OECD member countries is expected to increase only by 4.0% during this period," the report also said.

The demand for energy from China is expected to slow down significantly after 2020, as the economy of the Asian economic powers is maturing.

According to BP's outlook, global oil demand is expected to increase by 16 million barrels over the next 20 years, and by 2030, daily demand will exceed 103 million barrels.

This part of the additional demand will be mainly met by the increase of supply by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), while non-OPEC countries such as deepwater development in Brazil, oil sands in Canada and shale oil in the United States will also meet some of the demand.

“Under the backdrop of declining crude oil demand, coupled with the increase in the supply of non-traditional crude oil, including US shale oil and gas, Canadian oil sands, and Brazilian deep-water oil fields, by 2030, the western hemisphere will almost fully realize energy self-sufficiency.” BP's report Say.

This means that in other parts of the world, especially in Asia, the dependence on the Middle East will increase because of its continuously growing demand for oil.

BP also expects that the share of OPEC crude oil production in global crude oil production by 2030 will rise to the highest level since the 1970s.

Christof Ruehl, chief economist at BP, stated that "according to our forecast, OPEC's share of global crude oil production in 2030 will increase from 42% in 2010 to 46%, which will be the highest level since 1977."

At the same time, BP also predicts that global energy will continue to be dominated by fossil fuels. By 2030, fossil fuels will account for 81% of global energy demand, which is currently around 86%.

At the same time, however, by 2030 many consumers are expected to abandon oil and coal and turn to gas and renewable energy.

"For those engaged in energy business, the report is challenging, engaging and exciting," said BP CEO Bob Dudley.

“It (this report) has helped us become realistic and optimistic. The report shows that there are things we cannot change, such as the potential driving force of energy demand, and there are things we can change, such as the way we meet the demand. ”

“The main message of this report is that we need to have an open, competitive energy sector and encourage innovation so as to maximize efficiency.”