Domestic synthetic rubber market trend

1. Review of the development trend of synthetic rubber market From the overall trend of domestic synthetic rubber, the overall trend of 2012 showed a downward trend of shock, a slight rebound at the end of 2012, mainly after the shock in 2013. The main factor affecting the trend of synthetic rubber is the overall price trend of raw materials: Secondly, it is social stock, downstream demand and macro news.

After entering 2013, the world's economic growth momentum is still insufficient, and global liquidity has increased. The sovereign debt crisis has repeatedly hit market confidence, and the level of the international financial crisis has continued to appear. Domestic and foreign experts generally believe that the current slump in developed economies has a huge impact on emerging markets and developing countries. The world economy is currently in a soft recovery and there is a problem of insufficient growth momentum. Therefore, there is still a downside risk to the global economy this year.

According to the charts of styrene-butadiene rubber and butadiene-butadiene rubber, it can be seen that since 2012, the domestic market prices for styrene-butadiene rubber and butadiene-butadiene rubber show a gradual downward movement of the ladder-like oscillations. To date, the market has maintained the trend of low-level fluctuations. . The main reason for affecting prices during the period was the change in the cost of butadiene, and the secondary cause was the effect of social inventory and news. In the middle of the small-scale news, the market experienced minor fluctuations.

In early 2012, due to the cost of raw material butadiene, leading domestic production companies have cut production, or stopped and overhauled to cope with the high costs, so the amount of goods in circulation is small, plus some middlemen borrowed Korean butadiene equipment to overhaul. Hype, together push up prices.

Due to the excessive increase in the beginning of this year and the serious bubble, the inventory pressure of rubber products increased, and after the Spring Festival, the downstream started slowly and the demand was depressed. The market price fell. From 2012 to the present, the overall trend is turbulent. With the slight increase in the trend of raw material butadiene and the macroeconomic outlook and downstream demand and inventory, there is no shortage of slightly higher prices in the intermediate market. In mid-December of last year, butadiene rubber began to rebound slightly with the raw material butadiene.

This year, under conditions of high overall social stocks, sluggish downstream demand, and a slowdown in China's macroeconomic growth, the market maintained a small, low-level shock and consolidation.

The Asian outer disk of butadiene-butadiene rubber showed an inverted U-shaped decline, which is generally consistent with the trend of domestic synthetic rubber. In mid-February 2012, the price of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was very high and low, with a price of RMB 3,750/ton. In the Northeast Asian market, merchants' quotations for butadiene rubber in April were in the range of 3700-3900 USD/ton CFR in Northeast Asia, but the downstream tyre factory's intention to take delivery was near USD 3,700/ton. However, some of the butadiene rubber manufacturers' goods have already been booked, so the quotation is still at 3,850 US dollars / ton CFR near Northeast Asia. After a few months, the Asian outer disk maintained a slow downward trend.

From the end of November to the beginning of December last year, the price of butadiene rubber began to rebound slightly. As raw material butadiene bottomed out, the spot price of Gaoshun butadiene rubber rose. Butadiene prices closed at 1510 U.S. dollars per tonne CFR in Northeast Asia, up 40 U.S. dollars per tonne.

Butadiene prices have been declining since closing at 2010 USD/ton CFR. However, sufficient supply of butadiene rubber and limited buying interest have made the gains or restrictions in the later period. Industry insiders expect a weak demand situation in the tire market will continue until February next year. In addition, at the end of last year, the pressure for liquidation by the butadiene rubber producers and suppliers was increased, and low-cost ocean-going cargoes from Europe also suppressed the rising trend of Asian butadiene rubber.

Second, the overcapacity of synthetic rubber appears due to the strong domestic demand for synthetic rubber market and the ethylene industry's ability to supply raw materials for synthetic rubber. During the period 2005-2012, the plant capacity developed rapidly. The main synthetic rubber (including latex and special rubber) from 2005 The 1.33 million tons/year rose to 4 million tons/year in 2012, and the new production capacity was 2.67 million tons/year. The capacity of butadiene rubber equipment increased from 444,000 tons/year in 2005 to 1.14 million tons/year in 2012, and the new capacity was 696,000 tons.